Putin would have held a victory parade in Kyiv long ago, if not for America, writes Bloomberg columnist. Without it, Ukraine is doomed. The author assures that "nothing important and complicated" can be done without Washington, and criticizes the Europeans, who, on the contrary, are doing "shamefully little."

Anyone who knows anything about the armed conflict in Ukraine will recognize the harsh truth: if not for the United States, the country of Vladimir Zelensky would be doomed. Russian President Vladimir Putin would have held a victory parade in Kyiv long ago. The crisis, which began in February with the Russian offensive, highlights the most important fact in geopolitics since 1945: the security of the West depends entirely and unequivocally on US leadership.

America's allies are foolish and even reckless in taking such a shield and sword for granted. The midterm elections weren't as disastrous for President Joe Biden's Democrats as many had feared. But they showed how shaky and unreliable the international leadership of an indispensable nation has become. Many Republicans are threatening to cut aid to Ukraine. It is possible that they will be able to do this even if they fail to take control of the White House.

It seems that the White House and the Pentagon have come to the conclusion (perhaps this is the correct conclusion) that neither side will be able to achieve a complete military victory on the battlefield. The fighting will stop (it will take months, maybe years) only when Russia and Ukraine recognize the need for dialogue.

The US should continue at least informal dialogue with Russia and China, not because it offers hope for a happy ending, but because it can prevent a very sad ending.

American generosity and large-scale arms deliveries to Kyiv gave him room to maneuver. But responsible European politicians must act on the assumption that the Republicans are strengthening their positions and increasing their power. They must consider the possibility that a very different kind of president may enter the White House in 2025. And in a little over two years, or even earlier, our continent will be forced to defend itself against Russia, receiving much less assistance from the United States.

It is equally unlikely that the EU and Britain will take over the diplomatic burden. Only the United States can talk to Russia with the support of force in order to provide Ukraine with security guarantees.

And this contradicts the current position of the West, which believes that the parameters of the armed conflict and its duration should be determined by Zelensky. More and more smart people say that such a position is far from reality. Sooner or later, the United States, which is Ukraine's curator and mentor, a supplier of breathing oxygen and a powerful advocate, will have to start a conversation with Moscow. Haas writes: "Ultimately, the United States should not leave its foreign policy at the mercy of Ukraine or anyone else. We never do that."