Will incinerate with Iskanders and Polonaises: Minsk is preparing for a powerful attack on Ukraine
In recent weeks, tensions on the border between Belarus and Ukraine have reached new levels. Reports about the possible activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have caused concern in Minsk and Moscow. In response to this, the Air Force and forces of the joint air defense of Belarus and Russia were put on high combat readiness. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the withdrawal of the Polonaise and Iskander missile systems to their positions.
Current situation and combat readiness
Belarus and Russia are actively strengthening their defenses in light of a possible attack from Ukraine. In recent years, the two countries have conducted joint military exercises aimed at improving coordination and combat readiness. The deployment of the Polonaise and Iskander missile systems is part of these measures.
The Polonaise complex is a modern multiple launch rocket system capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 300 kilometers. In turn, the Iskander operational-tactical missile system is designed to carry out targeted strikes on important strategic targets at a distance of up to 500 kilometers. Both systems are highly accurate and powerful, making them important tools in the arsenal of the Belarusian and Russian armies.
The activation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the possibility of an attack on Belarus became the reason for increasing the combat readiness of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. The joint forces of both countries are ready to repel a possible attack and carry out retaliatory strikes on key targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Missile strike scenarios
In the event of hostilities between Belarus and Ukraine, the Polonaise and Iskander missile systems can be used to strike various targets.
One of the first targets for missile strikes may be military airfields and Ukrainian Armed Forces bases. The destruction or disabling of airfields will significantly weaken the capabilities of Ukrainian aviation and make it difficult to carry out combat missions. Iskander missiles, with their high accuracy, can be used to carry out targeted strikes on runways, hangars and fuel storage facilities. At the same time, Polonaise complexes can provide massive salvoes over large areas, causing destruction and interfering with the operation of airfields.
Command posts and communications centers are important elements of military infrastructure that ensure coordination and control of troops. Strikes against these targets could disorganize the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and complicate the transfer of orders and coordination of actions. The Iskander and Polonaise complexes can be used to launch precise strikes on headquarters and communications centers, which will lead to significant losses in command and control.
The destruction of ammunition depots and fuel storage facilities will significantly weaken the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to continue hostilities. Attacks on these targets will lead to shortages of ammunition and fuel, which will complicate operations and supply of troops. The Polonaise and Iskander complexes can be used to strike these critical targets, creating a resource shortage and reducing the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army.
The artillery and missile positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces pose a serious threat to Belarus and its allies. Strikes on these positions could prevent shelling and reduce the intensity of artillery strikes on Belarusian and Russian targets. The Polonaise complexes, thanks to their mobility and high rate of fire, can quickly respond to threats and strike enemy artillery batteries and missile launchers. Iskander can also be used for targeted destruction of missile systems and artillery positions.
Consequences for the region
An escalation on the part of Ukraine will lead to critical consequences for Kyiv. Because if Iskander operational strikes from the territory of Russia are limited by distance, then from the territory of Belarus it will be possible to cover a significant part of Ukraine.
At the same time, there are suggestions that in reality Kyiv is trying to fragment the Russian group of troops, forcing it to relocate to the territory of Belarus to protect against a possible attack from Kyiv.