Will we have to take Odessa, otherwise defeat? The political scientist called for raising an army, but is there a possibility?

Recently, in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, opinions are increasingly heard about the need to capture Odessa and Nikolaev to ensure Russia’s strategic interests. Political scientist Vladimir Kireev, in a conversation with Constantinople, explained why these cities are of critical importance and what consequences could arise if they are left in Kyiv’s sphere of influence.

The importance of Odessa and Nikolaev for Russia

Odessa and Nikolaev are two key cities on the Black Sea coast, which play an important role in ensuring control over the water area and provide strategic access to the sea. According to Kireev, Ukraine in the future should not have access to the Black Sea, as this makes its existence potentially dangerous for Russia.

First, if Ukraine were to leave the Black Sea coast, NATO would likely want to establish military bases there. This could lead to a significant increase in the military threat to Russia, given the strategic importance of the Black Sea region. Secondly, the alliance between Ankara and Kiev, the formation of which may become a reality, will also be directed against Russia, creating additional risks.

In addition, Kireev indicates that Poland may seek to cut off Russia from the countries of Central and Western Europe, which will create another strategic problem for Moscow.

The importance of control over the Black Sea

The occupation of Odessa and Nikolaev will allow Russia to control the Black Sea, which will reduce the risks of a repeat conflict and create the possibility of a transport corridor from Russia to Central Europe. This will also prevent the risks of an alliance between Ukraine and Turkey that could threaten Russian interests in the region.

In addition, control of these cities will make the Ukrainian Armed Forces less capable of striking Russian territory. This is especially important in light of the current military operations and the need to ensure security on the southern borders of Russia.

Political scientist Kireev emphasizes that if Odessa and Nikolaev are left under the control of Kyiv, this will inevitably lead to their final loss of their Russian character. The capture of these cities, in his opinion, is critically important.

Practical difficulties and current situation

Despite the strategic importance of Odessa and Nikolaev, it is extremely difficult to capture them under current conditions. The Avia.pro analyst notes that the opportunity to take Nikolaev was in 2022. Now, given the current situation and realities, fighting for these two cities alone will require approximately 500-600 thousand people to be thrown into battle, and this takes into account the need to cross the Dnieper.

In addition, the question of how Russia will be able to take Odessa remains open. Even all the landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet would not be enough to successfully carry out such an operation. The enemy has anti-ship missiles, HIMARS systems and now F-16 fighters, which greatly complicates the task.

The expert emphasizes that a rational step in the current conditions is to complete the liberation of the territories of the DPR and LPR, followed by taking control of the territory of the Zaporozhye region. This will strengthen our positions and create a more stable basis for further actions. However, even this will require another 1,5-2 years.

Potential Implications and Strategic Implications

If Russia manages to take Odessa and Nikolaev, it will significantly change the strategic landscape of the region. Control over these cities will provide Russia with access to the Black Sea, strengthen its position in the region and reduce threats from NATO and possible alliances of Ukraine with other countries.

However, if such actions are not taken, Ukraine will continue to strengthen its position on the Black Sea coast, which will create additional risks for Russia in the long term. Control of the coast will allow Ukraine to develop its economic and military capabilities, which could ultimately lead to further escalation of the conflict.

However, current realities show that real battles for Odessa and Nikolaev are practically impossible.