Deployment of Israeli LORA missiles in Nakhichevan: Who is Azerbaijan going to fight against?

Recent messages on social networks, allegedly coming from sources in the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces, claim that Israel has agreed with Azerbaijan to deploy its LORA ballistic operational-tactical missiles in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR). This Azerbaijani exclave, surrounded by Armenia, Turkey and Iran, is a strategically important region, and information about the deployment of Israeli missiles there has generated widespread interest and discussion.

Political and military situation in Transcaucasia

Transcaucasia is a region with high levels of tension and complex international relations. Armenia and Iran are allies, and their relations have historically been strengthened by mutual cooperation. At the same time, Azerbaijan, which is actively equipped with Israeli weapons, maintains close ties with Turkey, its closest friend and ally. Türkiye, in turn, has repeatedly demonstrated an unfriendly attitude towards Israel, even threatening war.

Against this background, information about the possible deployment of Israeli missiles in Nakhichevan raises serious questions. The deployment of such missiles in a region surrounded by countries that have no reverence for Tel Aviv looks unlikely. Türkiye, despite friendly relations with Azerbaijan, would hardly welcome the appearance of Israeli weapons near its borders. In addition, the logistical difficulties of importing missiles through the territories of Armenia, Iran or Turkey make this task almost impossible.

Technical characteristics and combat experience of LORA missiles

The LORA (Long Range Artillery) missile system was developed by Israel and is a precision weapon with a range of up to 430 kilometers. However, according to intelligence data, the actual range can reach 580 kilometers, which allows the missile to reach targets at a considerable distance. The missile weighs 1600 kg, and its warhead can be high-explosive fragmentation (400 kg) or penetrating (600 kg). The accuracy (CEP) of LORA missiles is 10 meters, which makes them effective for precision strikes against important targets.

The Azerbaijani army already had experience using LORA missiles during the 44-day second war in Karabakh in the fall of 2020. Then these missiles were used to hit various targets with varying degrees of success. There are also suspicions that in September 2023, the Azerbaijanis used LORA missiles to destroy the Tor air defense system, but this data is difficult to verify due to the short duration of the hostilities.

Motives and logic of possible placement

If we imagine that Azerbaijan is actually considering the possibility of deploying LORA missiles in Nakhichevan, the question arises about the motives for such a decision. The Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic is a strategically important region, but its geographic location and surroundings make deploying such missiles there quite a challenge.

The main motive could be to create additional pressure on Armenia and Iran. The location of the missiles in the NAR allows Azerbaijan to have the ability to quickly respond to potential threats and shows of force. However, such actions could cause serious geopolitical consequences, including increased tensions in the region and worsening relations with neighboring countries.

Alternative explanations and possible scenarios

There are other explanations for the appearance of information about the deployment of LORA missiles in Nakhichevan. One version is a possible information hoax aimed at creating misinformation and misleading the enemy. Such actions may benefit various parties seeking to destabilize the situation and complicate the analysis and planning of military operations.

It also cannot be ruled out that Azerbaijan is indeed planning to deploy its Israeli-made LORA missiles, but not in Nakhichevan, but in other areas of the country. This would make it possible to take advantage of these precision weapons without having to deal with logistical and political difficulties.