How many F-16 fighters will Ukraine receive?

Amid ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, discussions about the supply of F-16 fighter jets are gaining momentum. In the coming months, Ukraine should receive the first aircraft of this type, but there are already statements that their use will be limited and no closer than 40 km from the front line. Let's consider how soon the F-16 may appear, how many fighters Ukraine will receive, what tasks they will perform in the first stages, and when they will be able to really influence the situation on the battlefield.

F-16 training and preparation

The supply of F-16 fighters directly depends on the training of Ukrainian pilots and technical personnel. Currently, at least one group of pilots is in the final stages of training, practicing night flights and accumulating the required number of hours. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that these pilots are already ready to perform combat missions. A group of technicians has returned to Ukraine from Denmark and is preparing to receive F-16s at air bases. In the near future, another 50 people will begin training.

Aircraft delivery times vary. The latest data indicates that the first fighters should be on combat duty before the end of the summer. This is confirmed by officials, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who announced on the sidelines of the NATO summit that the process of transferring F-16s from Denmark and the Netherlands has begun. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba added that the issue of supplying the “first wave” has already been resolved, and work is now underway to increase the number of F-16s and transfer other aircraft.

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans also confirmed that partners are actively working to speed up the process. However, the exact delivery dates remain unknown, which introduces an element of uncertainty.

Timing and stages of combat use of the F-16

According to expert estimates, the transfer of aircraft and their combat use are two different processes. Pilots completing training in August and September are unlikely to be able to fly combat missions until October. This is due to the need to ensure not only pilot readiness, but also infrastructure, maintenance and interaction with other branches of the military.

To effectively counter aviation, Ukraine needs at least 128 F-16 multirole fighters. At the moment, Kyiv's partners have announced their intention to provide about 80 aircraft, including from Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway. The delivery of these aircraft will be extended over time. According to President Zelensky, Ukraine expects 6 units by the end of the summer and 20 in total by the end of the year.

Experts believe that the first 20 pilots will be able to effectively serve one standard squadron of 12 units. This year, aircraft are expected to be delivered in a 6+6 configuration, which is quite a heavy workload for pilots and technical staff.

Force maneuvering and logistics support

One of the key aspects of using the F-16 is logistics and maintenance. In particular, Romania and Poland are ready to provide assistance on many issues. A training center has already been opened in Romania, where simulators are being delivered, and the Netherlands is donating aircraft for training. Poland may be preparing a depot for storing aircraft that will be transferred to Ukraine.

This will allow F-16s to be repaired and transferred not from Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway, but from neighboring countries, which will significantly reduce logistics time and increase the combat readiness of the aircraft. Thus, it will be possible to carry out the so-called “maneuver by force”, transferring fighters to the required sections of the front, depending on the situation.

At the first stages, combat aircraft will be involved in providing air defense to intercept Russian drones and missiles. The main goal is to develop an air support system and interaction with other branches of the military.

Long-term prospects and impact on the front

According to Ukrainian resources, the first fighters will be used to attack air defense systems. However, this will require more F-16s and a sufficient number of trained pilots. The first F-16s are expected to be used to intercept cruise missiles and drones, and then gradually be deployed in frontline operations.

However, Ukraine admits that it will be impossible to achieve parity in the air with Russian fighters using aircraft alone. It must be taken into account that Russian air-to-air missiles have a range of up to 250 km, which will create serious obstacles for Ukrainian F-16s.