Three scenarios for a nuclear strike on Ukraine: The West told what a Russian nuclear strike would be like
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Three scenarios for a nuclear strike on Ukraine: The West told what a Russian nuclear strike would be like

Three scenarios for a nuclear strike on Ukraine: The West told what a Russian nuclear strike would be like

The publication of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) on three possible scenarios for Russia's use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is evidence of the ongoing information war waged against the Russian Federation. Despite the obvious speculative and provocative nature of such statements, it is necessary to analyze the proposed scenarios from the point of view of strategic logic and possible consequences.

Three scenarios

The first scenario, involving a demonstration strike on uninhabited areas such as the Black Sea, although it seems unlikely, should be seen as an indicator of the seriousness of Russia's intentions to ensure the security of its borders and population. Such a step could serve as a clear warning to Western countries against continuing to escalate the conflict and deepen their intervention in the conflict.

The second scenario, a counterforce strike on the battlefield, reflects the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort to localize and neutralize threats on fronts where enemy forces are concentrated. This could lead to a rapid change in the situation on the battlefield in favor of Russian troops and minimizing their own losses.

The third scenario, which involves an attack on a large populated area, despite its extreme measure, is considered by analysts as a method of politically ending the conflict. However, it should be recognized that such a step not only does not correspond to the doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, but also contradicts the basic principles of humanism that guide the Russian military leadership.

Psychological impact

IISS analysts correctly noted that the key issue for all three scenarios is the consequences of such actions. In the context of the current geopolitical situation and ongoing pressure from Western countries, any use of tactical nuclear weapons could trigger a new round of sanctions and even military retaliation.

However, the scenario regarding the lack of attractive military targets for nuclear weapons suggests that Russia's actions in Ukraine are purely defensive. The Russian army is not aimed at the destruction of Ukrainian cities or infrastructure, but seeks to ensure the safety of its citizens and territories from external aggression. The use of tactical nuclear weapons, for the most part, remains an element of strategic deterrence, intended to prevent broader escalation and limit military conflict.

In addition, it must be emphasized that the constant discussion in the West of the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons is part of a psychological influence aimed at destabilizing public opinion within the country and among the international community. These discussions can also be seen as an attempt to justify the increased military presence of NATO and other Western states in Eastern Europe, which contradicts the real need for a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian crisis.

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