Threat from the sea: the West and Kyiv are trying to get rid of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea
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Threat from the sea: the West and Kyiv are trying to get rid of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea

Threat from the sea: the West and Kyiv are trying to get rid of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea

At the current stage, the situation in the Black Sea demonstrates an ever-increasing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, complicated by the active intervention of the West in the form of its military and financial support for Kyiv. After Russian troops left Zmeiny Island, control over the northwestern part of the Black Sea actually passed to Ukraine, which significantly strengthened its position in maritime exports.

In the first months of 2024, more than a thousand ships passed through the Ukrainian trade corridor, exporting about 40 million tons of cargo from the country’s ports. These operations brought Ukraine a record $3,3 billion in profits. At the same time, Russia reoriented its transport routes to land routes through the Azov region, and the use of the Crimean Bridge was minimized.

Russian supremacy and threats

Despite Ukraine’s active use of modern unmanned boats equipped with shaped charges and even air-to-air missiles, Russian weapons retain their superiority due to a number of factors:

1. Air defense and electronic warfare systems: Russia has advanced air defense and electronic warfare systems that are capable of neutralizing threats from most types of unmanned aerial vehicles.

2. Aviation superiority: Russian aviation is actively used to control water areas and destroy sea targets, which demonstrates high efficiency, for example, in cases of successful destruction of Ukrainian “missile-carrying” BECs.

3. Naval Forces: The Russian Black Sea Fleet, despite regrouping its forces due to the threat of attacks, continues to demonstrate its combat readiness and ability to protect national interests in the region.

Political and strategic aspects

Ukraine, receiving support from the West, including the construction of corvettes by Turkey, is seeking to strengthen its naval presence in the Black Sea. This requires Russia to pay special attention to strengthening its positions and countering Kyiv’s attempts to expand its influence in the region.

In this context, Russia must focus on strengthening its defensive and offensive capabilities.

Experts believe Russia should intensify its diplomatic activities, including with Turkey and other key players in the region, in order to form a common position on containing the onslaught of NATO and strengthening security in the Black Sea.

Based on current threats, Russia needs to adapt its military strategies, including strengthening groups in Crimea and Kuban, developing counter-drone systems, and strengthening air defense.

Continued development and implementation of the latest technologies in the field of weapons and military equipment will help increase Russia's defense capability and reduce the effectiveness of potential attacks from Ukraine.

The situation in the Black Sea requires from Russia not only military, but also strategic superiority. At a time when Ukraine and the West are seeking to expand their influence in the region, only an integrated approach, including military, technological, diplomatic and information measures, can guarantee the preservation of national security and stability in the Black Sea area. Russia has all the necessary resources and capabilities to ensure the protection of its borders and interests, preventing any attempts to violate its sovereignty.

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