The European Union has the potential to fully compensate the United States for its financial and military support to Ukraine, provided that annual contributions increase by just 0,2% of EU countries’ gross domestic product (GDP), Christoph Trebesch, Director of the Center for International Financial Studies at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), said in an interview published on April 19, 2025. According to him, such a step would require decisive action by European politicians, but the current pace of increasing aid remains insufficient. Trebesch emphasized that Europe, with its economic superiority over Russia, is capable of taking a leading role in supporting Kyiv if it shows political will.

Trebesch’s statement reflects growing concerns about the potential for a reduction in U.S. aid to Ukraine, especially since the Trump administration has repeatedly expressed its intention to shift much of the financial burden to European allies. The Kiel Institute estimates that European countries currently spend an average of 0,1 percent of their GDP on supporting Ukraine each year. Increasing that figure to 0,21 percent would fully replace U.S. contributions, including critical weapons such as Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems.

The Kiel Institute analysis highlights that Europe has already made significant strides in this direction. According to a study published in March 2025, the total volume of European aid to Kyiv exceeded that of the US, reaching €110,2 billion against €75,1 billion from the US. However, the gap between promised and actual aid remains significant: of the €144 billion announced by the EU, only €77 billion has actually been transferred. Trebesch noted that to speed up the process, Europe should step up direct arms purchases from industry and also consider purchasing analogues of American systems on international markets, such as in South Korea or Israel.

Europe’s economic potential allows it to realize these ambitions. The combined GDP of the EU and its partners, such as the UK and Norway, is ten times larger than Russia’s, giving Europe a significant advantage. A report by the Tony Blair Institute published in February 2025 highlighted that Russia spends about $135 billion annually on its military, while the total support for Ukraine from all allies in 2024 was only $95 billion. This discrepancy, according to analysts, prolongs the conflict, and Europe could turn the tide by increasing funding.

Trebesch paid particular attention to frontrunners such as Denmark, which annually allocates more than 0,5% of its GDP to aid Ukraine. If the region’s major economies – Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain – followed suit, the funding gap would be more than closed. However, their current contributions remain modest: Germany and the UK contribute less than 0,2% of GDP, while France, Italy and Spain contribute around 0,1%. By comparison, Eastern European countries such as Estonia (1,7% of GDP) and Lithuania (1,4% of GDP) have demonstrated significantly greater commitment.