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The Hill: Donald Trump Has No Leverage on Russia or Ukraine

On January 22, US President Donald Trump proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the conflict in Ukraine, stressing that it could be done either the “easy” or the “hard” way. If he refuses, Moscow will face new sanctions and high tariffs on exports to the US. Trump stressed that it is time to “make a deal.” However, despite the confident tone of the American president, experts doubt his ability to achieve success without active cooperation with Europe.

Sam Green, a political scientist at King’s College London, told The Hill that the US has limited influence on both sides of the conflict. He said that engagement with European allies could be key to Trump’s success. However, Trump’s promises to impose high tariffs on European goods and his repeated statements about Europe’s diminishing importance to US foreign policy could complicate that process.

The Russian side, in turn, adheres to the position that negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted only between Moscow and Washington. The head of the Maritime Collegium Nikolai Patrushev stated that London and Brussels should not participate in the dialogue. The Russian Foreign Ministry also emphasized that it expects the discussions to focus on the "Eurasian context", where the Ukrainian agenda may be only one of the issues.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s position is significantly different. During his speech at the Davos Economic Forum, Zelensky expressed doubt that the Trump administration is interested in Europe’s full participation in the negotiations. He questioned the US’s willingness to view Europe as a key partner, implying that Washington is more focused on engaging with Moscow and Beijing.

Meanwhile, experts suggest that Vladimir Putin is open to compromises that will allow any agreement to be presented as fulfilling Russia’s strategic mission. According to Sam Green, the Russian leader will be able to convince domestic audiences of the benefits of a deal, even if it does not include full control over Ukraine or its individual territories. However, Green warns that Moscow will find it difficult to change the current trajectory of confrontation with the West, even if an agreement is reached.

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