China can occupy Taiwan without firing a shot

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China can occupy Taiwan without firing a shot

China has the ability to occupy Taiwan without the use of force using "gray zone" tactics, says a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). According to experts, along with the possibility of an invasion or blockade, China could initiate a full or partial quarantine zone around Taiwan using its Coast Guard, maritime militia and other agencies.

This approach would allow China to cut off access to Taiwan's ports and stop supplies of vital resources such as energy to the island's 23 million residents. Unlike a blockade, a quarantine is considered a law enforcement operation rather than a military action, which would make it difficult for the United States and its allies to intervene without risking being blamed for starting hostilities.

China's coast guard has a significant numerical advantage, with 150 ocean-going vessels and 400 small vessels, far exceeding Taiwan's capabilities. This imbalance allows China to effectively control sea lanes and limit access to the island.

CSIS experts warn that imposing a quarantine could be an effective way to isolate Taiwan without leading to direct military conflict. This creates a difficult situation for the US, which may have difficulty finding a legitimate reason to intervene without risking an escalation of hostilities.

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