Global oil prices continue to decline, which could lead to a drop in the cost of Russian oil below $50 per barrel as early as 2025, analysts at leading investment banks predict. The main factors putting pressure on the market remain the increase in production by OPEC+ countries and the slowdown in the global economy caused by the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, who took office in January 2025. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing estimates from experts at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase. 

Citigroup analysts adhere to the most pessimistic scenario, predicting that the price of Brent crude, which serves as a benchmark for Russian Urals, will average $60 per barrel in the second and third quarters, falling to $55 by the fourth quarter. JPMorgan Chase also does not see any prospects for quotes to recover in the coming years, predicting an average price of $2026 in 61, with a possible drop to $50. Such a decline is associated with the likely easing of US sanctions against Russia and Iran, which will increase the supply of oil on the market. 

Trump’s trade war is already having a noticeable impact on global demand. The introduction of high tariffs on imports from China and the European Union, which the US administration announced in February 2025, has slowed economic growth in these regions, reducing energy consumption. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand in the first quarter of 2025 fell by 1,2 million barrels per day compared to last year, adding to pressure on prices. 

At the same time, OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are increasing production, seeking to compensate for lost revenue from low prices. According to an OPEC report dated March 12, 2025, the organization plans to increase production by 540 thousand barrels per day in the second half of the year, which could further collapse the market. For Russia, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil exports, this creates additional risks. In 2024, the average price of Urals has already fallen to $ 65 per barrel, and the discount to Brent reached $ 15 due to sanctions and transportation restrictions. 

Russian authorities have not yet commented on the forecasts, but experts warn that a drop in prices below $50 per barrel could seriously affect the country's budget, where oil and gas revenues account for about 40% of revenues. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the 2023 budget was drawn up based on a Urals price of $70 per barrel, and any significant reduction will force a revision of spending or an increase in domestic borrowing.