Forecast the dollar to 2015 years and how it will affect the aviation


Forecast the dollar to 2015 years and how it will affect the aviation

Forecast the dollar to 2015 years and how it will affect the aviation


Unfortunately, to date, the Russian air force was faced with a very difficult problem, the ruble continued to fall steadily, leading to the bankruptcy of a number of airlines. Of course, this situation is highly controversial, as already held airlines, especially those which operate on domestic routes of the Russian Federation, almost nothing to lose by it, and as for those carriers who are owed to leasing companies in foreign currency, the situation around them at a very low.



Why is this happening? The reality is quite simple - the main income of the Russian airlines is measured in rubles, while paying aircraft cost accounts in foreign currency, and in this respect, the greater the difference between the Russian ruble and the major foreign currencies, the more airlines begin to wallow in loss .


What will become of the aircraft at the rate of the dollar in 60 rubles?



At present, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is at the level of 56 rubles. The situation in reality is not as catastrophic as it could be imagined. It is assumed that in view of current economic circumstances, the carrier's losses increase by an average of 1.5 times, and in order to stabilize the situation, airlines need to increase their passenger turnover by half, and as is known, it is almost impossible to do it in the shortest possible time. It is also necessary to note the fact. That those small airlines that operate exclusively on local and regional airlines practically do not face such problems because airport services have to be paid in the same rubles, but if the air carrier visits international airports, and in addition to All took advantage of leasing services, then it will be necessary to pay the partial cost of air equipment at a loss.



As a rule, small jumps in the dollar did not affect the activity of many airlines, but they can lead to the fact that air carriers will cover the range of destinations and routes to thereby eliminate their losses, or at least minimize them.

It is surprising that the dollar at 2015 year, even if this mark is absolutely no impact on the cost of fuel for aircraft, as observed at the moment trends show that the cost of it will be very stable, even taking into account the factor that the oil price may rise back to the mark of 90 and higher dollars per barrel.


Dollar in 70 rubles and its impact on the Russian aircraft



As soon as the dollar rate exceeds the mark of 60 rubles, for Russian aviation this may threaten the real problems. Most likely, in the next few months, several Russian airlines will cease to exist, as there will be nothing to pay for leasing of aircraft due to the lack of growth in passenger traffic. The problems will also be characteristic for a number of major air carriers of the country, especially for those airlines that make international flights, including charter air operators. Problems will remain the same - the lack of profitability in the performance of air travel, but there is one very appropriate "but", according to which, if airlines quickly minimize the number of international flights, then it is possible to avoid bankruptcy.



At the approach of the dollar to a mark in 70 rubles likely about ten Russian airlines go bankrupt, leading to a drop in the sphere of civil passenger transportation.


Dollar in 80 rubles and above. The inevitable collapse of the Russian civil aviation


Almost three-time losses of Russian carriers, at the rate of US dollar in the year 2015 80 rubles, non-overlapping additional passengers completely undermine the Russian aviation industry. With a further increase in the dollar in 2015 year, we can expect that there will be only a few air carriers that may lead to a temporary monopolization of this sector, the absence of competition, the growth of prices for air travel, etc.


dollar in 50 rubles. The most likely scenario for aviation



In the event that, contrary to expectations the dollar in 2015 year starts to fall, it is rather strengthen the Russian ruble, and will allow, in turn, a number of airlines to stay in a normal functioning state. In the near future this will cause expansion of route networks that will minimize losses and likely to attract new investment, and it is where you can look in the near future.

In addition, the majority of Russian airlines in this case decides to move to the use of domestic aircraft that will prevent further possible problems and likely to bring the domestic aviation out of the current crisis.



Currently, the most effective solution is to refuse certain number of aircraft, which in turn will save not only the airlines but also the very civil aviation of the Russian Federation. Of course, reducing the number of flights and routes will cause resentment on the part of passengers, but it can be a decisive factor in combating the dollar in the year 2015 and aviation.


Kostyuchenko Yuri specifically for Avia.Pro

On these issues to the "initiators" of the crisis: Putin and Shoigu.
If these figures except Crimea need any more foreign territory, I am afraid not only air transport, but also other segments of the transportation industry offers even more dire consequences!

What to say about passengers ... Think about pilots and graduates of flying schools! Where do we go and where to find work for ourselves? When this crisis affected even some of Russia's leading airlines, where not only flights and wages are cut, but also equipment and workers, experienced pilots rushed for airlines that are lower in rank, as well as in flight schools for small vehicles at Position pilot instructor! Making us young professionals competition and thereby depriving many ordinary guys who go through their career ladder starting to gain experience as an instructor's pilot. Still it is necessary to not forget, that flight schools do not stop to let out annually, decent streams of young experts. This problem has touched many, there is only hope that everything will improve in our country.



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