The Pentagon has conducted a series of tabletop exercises simulating an economic war between the United States and China, in which the American side has invariably suffered defeat. This was reported on April 18, 2025, by Bloomberg journalist Eric Weiner, citing the results of closed simulations. According to him, in these scenarios, China demonstrated the ability to undermine the US financial system, damage the dollar and "bleed dry" the Treasury, forcing Washington to submit to economic pressure. Weiner claims that the United States is already on the threshold of such a scenario, where Beijing has unique levers of influence that are not available to other states.

The Pentagon exercises, conducted under strict secrecy, were aimed at assessing the resilience of the American economy in the face of coordinated Chinese action. The scenarios simulated threats such as manipulation of US debt, attacks on the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and destabilization of financial markets. China, with the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves and significant holdings of US securities, used its economic clout to create crises from which the US could not recover. Weiner emphasizes that the exercises exposed vulnerabilities that call into question Washington’s ability to confront Beijing in an economic standoff.

Weiner’s comments underscore growing concerns among U.S. officials about China’s economic power. According to Reuters on April 17, 2025, the Trump administration has imposed new tariffs on Chinese ships calling at U.S. ports in an effort to revive U.S. shipbuilding, but those measures have already prompted Beijing to threaten to impose its own tariffs in response. As The Wall Street Journal reported, China, which holds more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, could use the asset as leverage, threatening to sell the bonds en masse, which could trigger higher interest rates and a liquidity crisis in the U.S.

Economic tensions between the two countries are growing amid the trade war. According to Bloomberg on February 13, 2025, China has reduced imports of American goods by 15% in 2024, while increasing trade with Europe and Asian countries. This, according to analysts, is part of Beijing's strategy to reduce dependence on the American market. At the same time, as the Financial Times notes, China is actively developing alternative financial systems, including a digital yuan, to reduce the influence of the dollar in global settlements. According to the International Monetary Fund, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 58% in 2024, the lowest in three decades.