The probability of a disaster. The probability of an airplane crash.


Are you worried about the upcoming air travel? Through the joint development of our Internet portal with experts (MIT) Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyYou can use the analyzer air crashes that will allow you to be sure that your flight is as safe as possible.

The program allows you to calculate the probability of the crash, based on real factors. In order to find out the probability of a plane crash, you must select the appropriate options from the airline to clarify the model aircraft which will take place on airfare, to clarify length of the route and a number of other parameters, and then you will be able to obtain objective information about how to secure your flight.

the likelihood of catastrophe

Let's imagine the everyday situation that you intend to make airfare on the plane An-3, whose age exceeds 18 years owned airline «SCAT» (according to objective rating agency «Airline Ratings», the airline is the worst in the entire CIS).

Suppose that fly you need the maximum distance - for the aircraft AN-3, this distance is 1230 kilometers, but the weather conditions clearly this does not help - in the airport of departure and arrival declared a storm warning, and at the same time, throughout the entire flight experience low area - clouds are located at a distance of less than 2000 meters above the ground, and now the winter season.

Please note that the aircraft will have to land in a small settlement with an unpaved runway, and the aircraft's crew consists exclusively of "beginners" whose work experience does not exceed 1 year. It would seem that everything, but if we take into account the factor that the aircraft will fly over the territory where hostilities are taking place, and in addition to everything, the aircraft will fall into a zone of strong turbulence, then please note that the probability of a plane crash in this case will be 45.15% , which is 4.5 million times the average statistical probability of a plane crash.

Select an airline:

Select the model of aircraft:

Select a range of direct flight:

Choose the age of the aircraft:

Select season:

Choose the weather at the airport of departure:

Choose the weather at the airport of arrival:

Choose a qualified crew:

Select the type of runway:

Choose a cloudy day:

Select the likelihood of military threat:

Select a probability turbulence:

Chance of fire on board: considered

Probability of a terrorist act: considered

Probability of unaccounted factors: considered

The probability of a plane crash: %

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Experts and experts argue that the probability of getting an airplane into an air crash is incredibly small, however, despite this, catastrophes still occur and hundreds of people die every year. This is due to a variety of factors, and if according to experts, the average probability of a plane crash is 1 to 100000, in reality this does not mean that air crashes occur with the probability of one crash to 100000 flights. It depends on a variety of factors, which can become one of the causes of the crash of passenger liners and death for tens and hundreds of passengers.


According to investigations conducted by air crashes:

  • 46% of the crash is due to the human factor, which can be attributed qualification of flight crew, air traffic controller professionalism, etc .;

  • 26% of aircraft accidents occur due to technical faults, which include reliability and technical condition of one or another model aircraft, the age of the aircraft;

  • 10% of accidents caused by the condition of airports and airstrips;

  • 10% of aircraft accidents occur due to weather conditions. As a rule, this affects the current weather conditions at the airport of departure and arrival, factors cloudiness and precipitation. Visibility, etc .;

  • 3% of aircraft accidents occur because of the fires, including in the course of the flight and during takeoff, landing, etc .;

  • 2% of aircraft accidents can occur because of errors the military, particularly from the fatal destruction of passenger aircraft air defense systems, etc .;

  • 1% of accidents are caused by terrorist acts.


However, it is necessary to clarify that flight safety also depends on the airline's safety rating, which is determined by the introduction of innovations, ensuring flight safety, training, etc. This should also include and various factors such as atmospheric phenomena (lightning, electrostatic charge, turbulence, etc.) and a number of unaccounted for factors that may arise and lead to a crash.

Attention is drawn to the fact that the probability of the crash is determined by the specificity factor, and the more unsafe it is, the greater the probability of the crash.

In that case, if you are unsure of any of the presented options, or you can not select this option, or select the average statistical value.

Surely you are interested in the question of how to effect innovative solutions to flight safety? Please note that the more modern aircraft is, the more favorable weather conditions are, the more perfect is the runway and the bole is a qualified crew, the less chances to get in a plane crash.

Imagine the situation when you need to make an air flight on an outdated model of an air carrier that is clearly not safe, the crew of the aircraft is clearly just got the right to fly the aircraft, on the eve of the flight a storm warning was given, and you need to fly from one little-known point to the other in which , Apparently, the runways are not properly equipped, the probability of a plane crash will be inevitably maximum, which you yourself can convince I'm using a specially developed software to determine the likelihood of crashes.

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