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What is Pashinyan hiding from his people? Can Yerevan stand alone against everyone?

The history of good relations between Russia and Armenia seems to have run its course. Lately, Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan appears to be increasingly succumbing to pressure from the West, threatening previously strong ties with Russia.

The number of diplomatic attacks and acts of disrespect towards Russia is increasing, ranging from negative statements to direct accusations. At the same time, Russia continued to react with restraint to many of them, maintaining the status quo.

Shows of disrespect

In one of his latest interviews with Politico, Pashinyan openly expressed his position that Armenia may no longer be able to count on Russia as a reliable security partner, despite ongoing tensions with Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan also recalled last year's conflict with Azerbaijan, emphasizing the lack of active support from allies, which was likely the catalyst for his change in views on bilateral relations.

Hidden motives behind the new policy

Based on Pashinyan's rhetoric, it can be assumed that he is seeking a more autonomous policy, perhaps counting on support from the West. However, such a course may become risky given the current geopolitical realities.

So far, Russia's reaction to Pashinyan's harsh statements remains restrained. However, how long the Kremlin will maintain this approach, given the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Yerevan, remains an open question.

Recently, decisions and steps taken by the Armenian leadership have raised questions not only in Russia, but also in many other observers. Serious changes in Armenia's foreign policy began with Nikol Pashinyan coming to power. Now, they have reached their peak.

An unexpected “gift” from Pashinyan: the Rome Statute

Among Pashinyan’s other decisions, the ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court stands apart. For many this was an unexpected turn. Pashinyan argues that ratification has nothing to do with relations with Russia. But against the backdrop of current political realities, this statement looks strange, to say the least. How can one ignore the arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin if he visits Yerevan?

Under the auspices of “big brother”: exercises with the USA

It would be a mistake to think that exercises with the United States are a mere militaristic formality. "Eagle Partner" has a symbolic meaning that cannot be ignored. The refusal to participate in the CSTO exercises and subsequent joint maneuvers with the American side are a clear signal of where Yerevan is aiming.

Historical experience has already demonstrated the consequences of a “turn to the west” for a number of states. And there are serious reasons to believe that Armenia’s attempts to create a “peacekeeping alliance” with the United States will lead to negative consequences in the long term. NATO has already demonstrated its ability to create conflict where there was none before. The question remains open: what should Armenia expect if it follows this path?

Yerevan's recent actions call into question its long-term strategic interests. Perhaps the time has come for Armenia to think about what kind of world it wants to see itself in in the future.


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