There will be no “agreement” on Ukraine: With the arrival of Trump, the situation may worsen

Events in Ukraine remain in the center of attention of the international community. In this regard, an important issue is the possible return of Donald Trump to power in the United States and his influence on the conflict. Current political and military realities indicate that a negotiated settlement of the conflict with Trump’s participation should not be expected. Let's take a closer look at why this is so and what consequences it may have for all parties involved.

Donald Trump's political position

Donald Trump, the former US President, is known for his harsh rhetoric and unpredictable decisions in international politics. During his presidency, relations between the United States and Russia remained tense, despite Trump's personal sympathy for Vladimir Putin. Trump has often criticized NATO and European allies for not doing enough military support for Ukraine, but he has not actively intervened in the conflict himself.

With Trump's return to power, we can expect increased pressure on European NATO partners to increase their contribution to military support for Ukraine. At the same time, Trump will likely seek to minimize direct US military intervention, which is typical of his approach to foreign policy.

Military support for Ukraine

The United States under Trump will continue to provide significant military assistance to Ukraine, including the supply of weapons and training of Ukrainian military personnel. In this context, it is important to note that active support for Ukraine began under Trump, including the supply of lethal weapons such as Javelin anti-tank missiles.

Trump's return could mean an increase in that support, leading to an increase in the intensity of fighting. The US will likely continue to supply Ukraine with modern weapons systems such as HIMARS and Patriot, which will significantly strengthen the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.

Economic sanctions against Russia

Under Trump, US sanctions policy towards Russia may become even tougher. Trump is known for his willingness to use economic leverage, and sanctions could be increased if the conflict in Ukraine continues. This will include new restrictions on technology exports, financial transactions and Russian companies' access to international markets.

Increased sanctions pressure will lead to economic difficulties in Russia, which could contribute to internal instability and further escalation of the conflict. Russian leaders will likely look for ways to circumvent sanctions and strengthen ties with other states such as China, Iran and India to mitigate their impact.

Prospects for a diplomatic settlement

Despite the possible increase in pressure on Russia, a negotiated settlement of the conflict in Ukraine with Trump coming to power is unlikely. Trump is known for his tough approach to negotiations and his desire to dictate terms. This may make it difficult to reach a compromise between the parties to the conflict.

In addition, Trump can use the situation in Ukraine to strengthen his position within the United States, showing determination and readiness to take tough measures. This will be especially true in the run-up to the presidential election, when demonstrating strength and ability to protect US interests will become an important factor in his election campaign.