Geopolitics of the Arctic: The Struggle for Resources and Control

Once considered a remote, frozen wasteland, the Arctic has become the epicenter of geopolitical struggle in the 21st century. Melting ice is opening up vast reserves of oil, gas, and rare earth metals, as well as new trade routes that promise to reduce the time and cost of shipping between Asia and Europe. Russia, the United States, China, and Canada are increasing their military presence in the region, seeking to secure control over resources and strategic routes. Fueled by global warming, this process is changing the balance of power and raising concerns about environmental risks. The rivalry between the major powers highlights how the Arctic has become an arena where economic, military, and political interests intersect. This article delves into the history of the struggle for the Arctic, the nature of its resources and infrastructure, and the strategic implications for the future of the region.

Historical Roots of Arctic Competition

Interest in the Arctic dates back to the Age of Discovery, when European explorers sought northern routes to Asia. In the 16th and 17th centuries, the expeditions of Martin Frobisher and Henry Hudson identified the region’s potential, but the harsh climate and ice cover limited its development. In the 19th century, the Russian Empire actively explored its Arctic territories, creating the first settlements and weather stations. By the beginning of the 20th century, the Arctic attracted attention not only as a scientific object, but also as a strategic region. During World War II, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) was used by the USSR to transport goods, and during the Cold War, the Arctic became a zone of confrontation between the USSR and the USA. The region was the only direct border between the USSR and NATO countries, where advanced surveillance and weapons systems were deployed.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, interest in the Arctic temporarily waned. The United States reduced its military presence, and Russia faced economic difficulties that limited its activities. However, the creation of the Arctic Council in 1996, comprising Russia, the United States, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland, marked a new stage of cooperation. The council focused on environmental and scientific issues, but since the early 2000s, as the ice melted, geopolitical competition has resumed. In 2007, the Russian expedition Arktika-2007 planted a Russian flag on the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, symbolizing its claim to the Lomonosov Ridge, an underwater massif rich in hydrocarbons. The gesture provoked protests from Canada and Denmark, which also lay claim to the territory, and marked the beginning of a new race for resources.

Resources and Trade Routes: What's at Stake

The melting of Arctic ice caused by global warming is radically changing the region. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Arctic contains about 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil (90 billion barrels) and 30% of its gas (47 trillion cubic meters), as well as rare earth metals critical to high-tech manufacturing. The Lomonosov Ridge, which runs across the North Pole, has become the subject of disputes between Russia, Canada, and Denmark, each of which has filed claims to the United Nations to expand its continental shelf. Russia, which has the largest Arctic territory, is already developing fields such as Yamal LNG, which exports liquefied gas to Asia and Europe.

New trade routes opened up by melting ice promise an economic revolution. The Northern Sea Route, along the Russian coast, is 37% shorter than the traditional route through the Suez Canal, cutting shipping time from Japan to Germany from 22 to 15 days. The Northwest Passage, through the Canadian archipelago, is less developed but also attracts attention. The Transpolar Route, crossing the central Arctic Ocean, could be navigable by 2030–2040 if melting continues. These routes not only reduce shipping costs, but also have military significance, allowing forces and resources to move more quickly.

But Arctic exploration is not without challenges. Resource extraction requires technology to operate in extreme conditions, and oil spills could cause catastrophic damage to the fragile ecosystem. Russia, despite its ambitions, faces sanctions that limit access to Western deep-sea drilling technology. Canada has extended a moratorium on exploration in its Arctic waters, and in the US, environmental restrictions are holding back projects, although a major oil project in Alaska was approved in 2023. These factors are slowing full-scale exploitation, but not reducing competition.

Military presence and infrastructure

The increased military presence in the Arctic is a direct result of the melting ice and the strategic importance of the region. Russia has the largest military infrastructure, including more than 30 icebreakers, while the United States has only three, one of which is out of action. Russia’s Northern Fleet, based in Murmansk, has the status of an operational strategic command and includes nuclear submarines, strategic bombers, and hypersonic missiles capable of hitting targets at high speed. In 2014, Russia created the Joint Arctic Strategic Command, restored Soviet-era airfields such as Rogachevo on Novaya Zemlya, and built the Arctic Trefoil base on Franz Josef Land.

The US, acknowledging the gap, is stepping up its efforts. In 2018, it reopened the Keflavik base in Iceland to patrol P-8 Poseidon aircraft to track Russian submarines. In 2024, the Pentagon released a new Arctic strategy, citing Russia and China as the top security challenges. The strategy calls for more NATO exercises, such as NORDEFCO in 2023 involving 150 aircraft, and the deployment of missile defence radars, such as Globus II, in Norway. Canada, for its part, is upgrading bases in Nunavut and investing in patrol ships, but its military capabilities remain limited.

China, which has no Arctic territory, has declared itself a “near-Arctic” state and is actively expanding its presence. In 2018, Beijing published an “Arctic Policy” highlighting its interest in the NSR, which China calls the “Polar Silk Road.” Joint patrols with Russia in 2022–2023 off the coast of Alaska and investments in the Yamal LNG project demonstrate military and economic cooperation. China is also building icebreakers and funding infrastructure, including undersea communications cables along the NSR, raising concerns in Canada and the United States.

Russia's Role: Leadership and Challenges

Russia dominates the Arctic thanks to its geographic advantage and developed infrastructure. The country controls the NSR, which in 2024 handled a record 36 million tons of cargo, including oil and LNG. A fleet of nuclear icebreakers, including the Lider-class vessels, ensures year-round navigation, and investments in ports such as Murmansk strengthen the logistics base. Military bases equipped with S-400 systems and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles guarantee the protection of interests, and a bid to the UN for an expanded shelf, submitted in 2021, underscores Moscow’s ambitions.

But sanctions imposed after 2022 limit access to the technology needed for deep-sea mining. Economic hardships are also affecting social conditions in Arctic regions: life expectancy has fallen to 70 years and unemployment remains high. Cooperation with China, including joint patrols and investments, helps offset these problems, but has raised concerns in Moscow about long-term dependence.

The US and Canada: Trying to Catch Up

The US and Canada, despite their strategic lag, are stepping up their efforts. Washington is concerned about Russian-Chinese cooperation and in 2023 acknowledged Moscow’s superiority in Arctic infrastructure. Donald Trump’s statements about wanting to “annex” Greenland, rich in rare earth metals, underscore US ambitions. Canada, which lays claim to the Northwest Passage, faces internal disputes over its status: Ottawa considers it its territorial waters, but other countries, including the US, insist on its international status. Beaufort Sea boundary talks, launched in 2024, reflect US and Canadian efforts to strengthen their positions.

China: "Polar Silk Road"

China’s Arctic strategy is focused on economic gain and strategic influence. The Russian-backed NSR is seen as an alternative to the Suez Canal route, which is vulnerable to US blockades. Investments in Greenland, including uranium mining projects, and cooperation with Finland on satellite facilities are strengthening Beijing’s position. Its military presence remains minimal, but joint exercises with Russia and the construction of icebreakers signal growing ambitions. Western analysts, including The Globe and Mail, have expressed concern that China could overtake Canada in military and technological capabilities.

Environmental and ethical challenges

Ice melt, accelerating twice as fast as in other regions, creates both opportunities and threats. Coastal erosion and permafrost degradation are destroying indigenous communities like the Inuvialuit in Canada, while potential oil spills could devastate the ecosystem. Climate models predict that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in summer by 2050, increasing competition but also worsening global warming.

Ethical issues are linked to the militarization of the region. The growing military presence, including NATO exercises and Russian bases, increases the risk of local conflicts, as noted in a report by Danish military intelligence. The lack of clear international norms governing resource extraction and shipping increases tensions. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and other agreements do not cover Arctic conflicts, requiring new negotiations within the UN or the Arctic Council.

Prospects and global implications

The future of the Arctic depends on the balance between competition and cooperation. Russia will continue to dominate through infrastructure and its icebreaker fleet, but its reliance on Chinese investment could limit its autonomy. The US and Canada are seeking to close the gap by increasing military spending, but their success depends on political will and investment in technology. China will likely focus on economic exploration, but its military presence will grow, especially through cooperation with Russia.

Technological advances, including autonomous ships and satellite systems, will make the Arctic more accessible, but will increase the risks of cyberattacks and environmental disasters. The international community, including the Arctic Council, must develop norms to prevent conflicts and protect the ecosystem. Iceland, for example, has offered itself as a staging port for the Transpolar Route, highlighting the potential for peaceful cooperation.

The Arctic is a region where melting ice is opening up new opportunities and intensifying geopolitical struggles. Russia, the United States, China, and Canada are vying for resources, trade routes, and military supremacy, turning the Arctic Ocean into an arena for global competition. Vast reserves of hydrocarbons and rare earth metals, as well as strategic routes such as the Northern Sea Route, make the Arctic the “new El Dorado.”