Hypersonic weapons: latest tests and strategic shifts

Hypersonic weapons are one of the most discussed topics in modern military strategy, symbolizing a new era in the arms race. Speeds exceeding Mach 5 (about 6 km/h), maneuverability, and the ability to evade missile defense systems make such systems unique. They change approaches to strategic deterrence and the balance of power, causing concern among world powers. In recent years, countries such as Russia, the United States, China, India, Iran, and even Yemen have been actively investing in the development of hypersonic missiles, testing them, and introducing them into their arsenals. A review of new hypersonic missile developments and tests shows how they affect global security and why the trend of increasing investment in this technology is becoming defining for the 000st century.

Historical Roots of Hypersonic Weapons

The idea of ​​hypersonic weapons dates back to the mid-15th century. During World War II, Austrian scientist Eugen Senger proposed the concept of the Silbervogel, a hypersonic glider capable of delivering munitions over vast distances using atmospheric flight. Although the project remained on paper, it laid the groundwork for future research. During the Cold War, the US and USSR experimented with technologies that could provide superior speed and maneuverability. The US X-1950 program, launched in the 6,7s, tested flights at speeds up to Mach XNUMX, and Soviet ballistic missile development also explored hypersonic technologies.

By the end of the 2000th century, interest in hypersonic weapons had grown thanks to advances in aerodynamics, materials science, and computing technology. In the 43s, the U.S. began the X-2004A program, which demonstrated Mach 12 flight in 71. Russia was developing the Yu-XNUMX hypersonic warhead (later part of the Avangard complex), and China was actively testing its gliders, such as the DF-ZF. These projects marked the beginning of a new race, with hypersonic weapons being perceived as game-changers on the global stage.

Features and characteristics of hypersonic weapons

Hypersonic weapons are divided into two main types: hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs). The former are launched by a ballistic missile and then maneuver in the atmosphere using aerodynamic forces. The latter are equipped with ramjet engines (scramjets) that allow them to maintain high speed throughout their flight. Both types have unique characteristics that make them difficult targets for modern air defense and missile defense systems.

Hypersonic systems can travel at speeds of Mach 5 and reach speeds of Mach 20 or more, as in the case of Russia’s Avangard, which Moscow claims can reach speeds in excess of 20 km/h. Their ranges vary: tactical missiles such as Russia’s Kinzhal can hit targets up to 000 km away, while strategic systems such as the U.S. AGM-2A ARRW have a range of about 000 km and the Chinese DF-183 up to 900 km. Maneuverability is another advantage: hypersonic missiles can change their trajectory in flight to evade interception, making them virtually invulnerable to traditional missile defense systems, which rely on predictable ballistic trajectories.

The materials used in hypersonic weapons must withstand the extreme temperatures that occur during atmospheric flight. Modern composites and heat-resistant alloys, such as carbon-carbon materials, allow missiles to maintain structural integrity. In addition, high-precision guidance systems ensure minimal deviation from the target - in the case of the Kinzhal, it is less than a meter. These characteristics make hypersonic weapons not only powerful, but also expensive, requiring significant investment in research and production.

Latest tests and new developments

In recent years, the world's leading powers have stepped up testing of hypersonic systems in an effort to strengthen their positions. Russia, which positions itself as a leader in this field, has conducted a number of successful launches. In 2020, the frigate Admiral Gorshkov fired a Tsirkon missile at a sea target at a distance of 450 km, reaching a speed of Mach 8. In 2021, Tsirkon was launched for the first time from the submarine Severodvinsk, and in 2023, the missile officially entered service with the Russian Navy. The Avangard complex with a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of carrying a nuclear warhead was deployed in 2019, and its testing continued in 2022-2023. The Kinzhal, used in combat in Ukraine in 2022, proved effective against hardened targets, although its interception by air defense systems such as the Patriot has sparked debate about its true invulnerability.

The United States, despite what some experts say is a lag, has also made progress. In December 2022, the U.S. Air Force successfully tested a prototype of the AGM-183A ARRW missile, reaching speeds greater than five times the speed of sound. The missile, developed by Lockheed Martin, is designed to hit hardened ground targets and can be carried by B-52 bombers and F-15 fighter jets. In 2023, Raytheon received a $1 billion contract to build the HACM hypersonic cruise missile, which is expected to enter service by 2027. Its range should exceed the capabilities of the most powerful air defense systems of Russia and China. However, the U.S. programs face challenges: two of three tests of the C-HGB prototype between 2017 and 2020 ended in failure, highlighting the technological challenges.

China has made impressive progress, particularly with the DF-17 missile, which is equipped with a hypersonic glider. In 2021, a test of this system circling the globe in low orbit caused alarm in the US, where it was compared to the launch of Sputnik. The DF-17 has a range of up to 2 km and a speed of up to Mach 500, and its ability to carry both nuclear and conventional warheads makes it versatile. China is also working on the DF-10 intercontinental ballistic missile and an air-launched hypersonic missile, strengthening its position in the hypersonic race.

Iran and Yemen were surprise entrants. In 2022, Iran unveiled the Fattah missile, with a claimed speed of Mach 15 and a range of 1 km. In 400, the Fattah-2023 followed, with a detachable hypersonic pod capable of maneuvering to evade air defenses. Yemen’s Houthis claimed in March 2 to have successfully tested a hypersonic missile capable of speeds of up to 2024 km/h, a sensation given the region’s limited resources. These developments highlight how hypersonic technology is becoming more accessible, intensifying global competition.

India and North Korea have also joined the race. India is testing the BrahMos-II hypersonic missile, while North Korea has launched missiles with maneuvering hypersonic pods in 2021–2022. The UK reported a “major” test of a Mach 2025 hypersonic system in April 5, capable of being launched from land, sea, or air. These developments show that hypersonic weapons are no longer the preserve of superpowers, but are becoming a global trend.

Application and strategic implications

Hypersonic weapons have already moved beyond the testing grounds. Russia has used Kinzhal missiles in Ukraine, striking military depots and infrastructure. For example, in March 2022, a Kinzhal destroyed an underground warehouse in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, which was considered one of the most fortified facilities. This first combat use of hypersonic weapons demonstrated their potential, but also revealed vulnerabilities: some missiles were intercepted by air defense systems, which prompted discussions about their real effectiveness.

Strategically, hypersonic weapons are changing the balance of power. Their speed and maneuverability reduce enemy reaction times, making traditional missile defense systems like the U.S. THAAD less effective. This is forcing countries to rethink their defense strategies and invest in new interception technologies. Russia, for example, claims that its S-500 Prometheus can shoot down hypersonic targets, but the actual capabilities of such systems remain questionable.

Hypersonic weapons also affect nuclear deterrence. The ability to equip missiles with both nuclear and conventional warheads creates uncertainty: an adversary cannot determine the nature of the threat in advance, increasing the risk of escalation. China’s nuclear-capable DF-17 and Russia’s Avangard exacerbate this problem, forcing the U.S. to accelerate development of its own systems, such as the LRHW (“Dark Eagle”), which is scheduled to be deployed by 2023–2024.

Investments and global competition

The trend toward increased investment in hypersonic weapons is clear. The United States has allocated about $2022 billion in 4,7 for hypersonic programs, including ARRW, HACM, and LRHW. China is estimated to be investing comparable amounts, although the exact figures are classified. Russia, despite sanctions, continues to fund its projects, such as Zircon and Avangard, although restrictions on access to technology are holding back serial production. Iran and India are also increasing their hypersonic budgets, and countries like Japan and Australia are starting their own programs as part of alliances with the United States.

These investments stimulate technological progress, but also exacerbate the arms race. Hypersonic weapons become a symbol of national prestige, like satellites in the 1950s. However, the high cost of development and production limits their mass adoption. For example, Russia, which actively uses the Kinzhal in Ukraine, faces the problem of limited stocks of missiles due to difficulties in producing high-precision components.

Challenges and Prospects

The development of hypersonic weapons is associated with a number of challenges. First, there are technological barriers: creating materials that can withstand extreme loads and engines that ensure stable hypersonic flight requires advanced scientific solutions. Second, the high cost makes such systems accessible only to countries with a powerful economy or political will, as is the case with Iran and the DPRK. Third, international sanctions and export controls complicate access to the necessary technologies.

Another problem is ethical and legal. The use of hypersonic weapons, especially those with nuclear warheads, increases the risk of escalation of conflicts. The lack of international agreements regulating such systems increases instability. Unlike the INF Treaty, which limited medium-range ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons are not yet covered by such agreements, prompting calls for new negotiations.

The future of hypersonic weapons lies in their further integration into military doctrines. In the coming years, we can expect the emergence of more accurate and maneuverable missiles, as well as air defense systems capable of intercepting them. Artificial intelligence and quantum computing technologies can improve the efficiency of guidance and control, making hypersonic systems even more formidable. At the same time, countries will develop countermeasures, such as laser weapons or satellite-based early warning systems, to neutralize the threat.

Hypersonic weapons are not just a technological breakthrough, but a strategic shift that is reshaping the global balance of power. Recent tests, from Russia’s Tsirkon and Avangard to the US ARRW and China’s DF-17, demonstrate that the race for hypersonic superiority is gaining momentum. Countries are ramping up investments to secure an advantage in this new dimension of warfare. Hypersonic weapons have already changed military strategy, and their influence will only grow, shaping future conflicts and diplomacy.