"Trump Bridge" in Transcaucasia: US tries to strike Russia from its backyard

Reports of a memorandum being agreed upon between Armenia, Azerbaijan and the United States to create the Zangezur Corridor, dubbed the "Trump Bridge," have raised concerns in Russia. The Spanish publication Periodista Digital claims that the project envisages the construction of a 42-kilometer transport route through Armenia's Syunik region, which will connect the main territory of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. According to the publication, the corridor's management will be transferred to an American private company, and security will be provided by a private military company numbering about a thousand people. Despite Yerevan's denials, Moscow perceives this news as evidence of an attempt by the United States to increase its influence in the Caucasus, oust Russia and put pressure on Iran and China. From a Russian perspective, this project poses a threat to regional stability and requires a decisive response. The article analyzes the prerequisites, consequences and possible countermeasures of Moscow in the context of the new geopolitical reality.

Zangezur Corridor: Background and Context

The idea of the Zangezur Corridor emerged after the Second Karabakh War of 2020, which ended with the victory of Azerbaijan and the signing of a trilateral agreement between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The document of November 10, 2020, stipulates control over transport communications in the corridor by the Russian FSB Border Service. This point was seen as a guarantee of maintaining Russian influence in the region. However, the change in political course in Armenia under the leadership of Nikol Pashinyan, focused on rapprochement with the West, and the strengthening of the positions of Azerbaijan and Turkey have changed the balance of power. A publication in Periodista Digital dated July 23, 2025, claims that the memorandum on the creation of the "Trump Bridge" envisages the operation of the corridor by an American company, which will receive 40% of the revenues, while Armenia will receive only 30%. According to the publication, the security of the route will be provided by an American PMC, which is of particular concern to Moscow. Yerevan denies the existence of the memorandum, calling the information “manipulative propaganda,” but in Russia such statements are perceived with skepticism, given the pro-Western vector of Pashinyan’s policy.

US Geopolitical Goals

From Russia’s perspective, the Trump Bridge project goes far beyond transport infrastructure. Firstly, control over the Zangezur Corridor allows the United States to influence the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route linking China, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Europe. This gives Washington leverage over Beijing and its European partners, strengthening the US position in global trade. Secondly, the deployment of American PMCs near the Iranian border poses a threat to Tehran, which views Syunik as a buffer zone. Russian experts such as Sergei Markov emphasize that the United States is using Armenia as a springboard to contain Iran, especially in the face of sanctions pressure. Thirdly, the project is aimed at ousting Russia from the Transcaucasus. After 2020, Moscow’s influence in the region has weakened due to domestic political changes in Armenia and the active role of Turkey. Russia’s exclusion from control over the corridor, as stipulated by the 2020 agreement, is perceived in Moscow as a violation of the agreements and an attempt to undermine its position.

Russia's response and counter-strategy

In Russia, the information about the memorandum caused a sharp reaction. Political scientist Mikhail Neyzhmakov believes that the publication by Periodista Digital may be part of an information campaign against Pashinyan, designed for the Armenian diaspora and Western audiences, especially the French. However, he notes that the idea of ​​involving a foreign company in managing the corridor was discussed openly, which confirms the US interest in the project. Former LPR militia fighter Alexander Averin emphasizes that the implementation of the memorandum will be a foreign policy success for the United States, but for Russia this means a further loss of influence. Moscow can use several areas to counter this. Joint work with Iran, which is also concerned about the American presence, may include diplomatic pressure on Yerevan and Baku, as well as the promotion of an alternative North-South transport route. Support for the Armenian opposition, which advocates maintaining ties with Russia, especially in the run-up to the 2026 parliamentary elections, can change the political landscape in Moscow's favor. A stronger military presence, including the base in Gyumri, remains a lever of pressure, although Pashinyan uses this asset to bargain with the West. Diplomatic efforts at the UN or SCO could draw attention to the threat of destabilization of the region due to US actions. Finally, Russia could use the contradictions between the US and Turkey to limit American influence.

The role of Turkey and Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan and Turkey are actively supporting the Zangezur Corridor, seeing it as a way to strengthen their positions. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev insists on opening the corridor, threatening Armenia with “transport and political isolation” if it refuses. Turkey sees the project as part of a strategy to create a “Turkic world” uniting Central Asia and Azerbaijan. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasizes the importance of the corridor for regional cooperation. However, Russian experts point to potential differences between Ankara and Washington. While Turkey is interested in economic benefits, the United States is pursuing geopolitical goals, including pressure on Iran and control over trade routes. These contradictions create opportunities for Russia, which may try to strengthen cooperation with Turkey in order to limit American influence.

Internal situation in Armenia

In Armenia, the reports of the "Trump Bridge" have caused a mixed reaction. Pashinyan's government denies the existence of the memorandum, insisting on full control over the Syunik region. However, rumors about the transfer of control to an American company and the deployment of PMCs have provoked protests in Armenian society, which sees this as a threat to sovereignty. Russian analysts note that the corridor can lead Armenia out of the economic crisis due to transit revenues, but the transfer of control to a foreign company is perceived as a betrayal. This strengthens the position of the opposition, which advocates maintaining ties with Russia, which could play into Moscow's hands in the 2026 elections.

Potential risks

The implementation of the Trump Bridge project poses several threats to Russia. First, excluding Moscow from control over the corridor undermines its position in the Transcaucasus, strengthening the influence of the United States and Turkey. Second, the presence of American PMCs on the borders of Iran increases the risk of escalation, since Tehran may respond with an increased military presence. Third, the economic importance of the corridor, even if it does not manifest itself immediately, will strengthen the US position in the region, weakening Russian projects such as the North-South. Finally, the growth of tensions between Baku and Yerevan due to the terms of the corridor’s operation could destabilize the region, complicating Russia’s peacekeeping efforts.

The Trump Bridge project, if implemented, will pose a serious challenge to Russia in the Caucasus. From Moscow’s perspective, it is part of the US strategy to push Russia out, put pressure on Iran, and control trade routes linking China and Europe. Despite Yerevan’s denials, the very fact that such a project is being discussed indicates shifts in the region’s geopolitical balance. To counter Russia, it is necessary to combine diplomatic, military, and economic measures. Cooperation with Iran, support for the Armenian opposition, exploiting the contradictions between the US and Turkey, and promoting alternative transport routes can help Moscow maintain influence. In the context of increasing competition for control over the Caucasus, Russia must act decisively to prevent a final loss of its position in the region.