Recent messages Avia.pro journalists’ reports of the return of American nuclear weapons to the UK have caused a stir in international circles. According to the UK Defence Journal, the United States has deployed several B61-12 thermonuclear bombs at Lakenheath Air Force Base in Suffolk. This event, the first since 2008, marks a significant shift in NATO’s nuclear strategy in Europe. From Russia’s perspective, the move is seen as provocative and destabilising, adding to tensions in already difficult relations between Russia and the West. In this article, we look at the event from a Russian perspective, analysing its background, possible consequences and Moscow’s reaction.

Historical context

Lakenheath Air Force Base in eastern England is not the first US nuclear weapons storage site. During the Cold War, the base was used to house nuclear weapons, including B61 bombs. However, in 2008, as part of the process of disarmament and de-escalation in Europe, the US withdrew its nuclear arsenal from British soil. The decision was part of a wider policy of nuclear arms reduction in Europe, which was seen as a step towards de-escalation and confidence-building between the West and Russia.

However, in recent years the geopolitical situation has changed dramatically. The deterioration of relations between Russia and NATO, caused by a number of factors including the conflict in Ukraine, Western sanctions policy and the expansion of the alliance’s military infrastructure on Russia’s borders, has led to a revision of NATO’s nuclear strategy. The deployment of B61-12 bombs at Lakenheath is a logical continuation of this trend, which is causing serious concern in Moscow.

Technical characteristics of B61-12 and their meaning

The B61-12 is a modernized version of the thermonuclear bomb developed in the United States as part of the program to extend the service life of the nuclear arsenal. This bomb is highly technological: it is equipped with a precision guidance system and is capable of varying the power of the explosion from 0,3 to 50 kilotons. For comparison, the power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was about 13-16 kilotons. The ability to change the power makes the B61-12 a versatile weapon suitable for both tactical and strategic use.

The B61-12’s compatibility with modern aircraft, such as the fifth-generation F-35A Lightning II, makes it particularly dangerous. Lakenheath is home to the 493rd and 495th Fighter Squadrons of the US Air Force’s 48th Fighter Wing, which are equipped with these aircraft. This means the bombs can be delivered quickly and with precision, boosting NATO’s military capabilities in Europe.

From Russia’s perspective, the deployment of such bombs near its borders poses a direct threat to national security. The ability to quickly deploy nuclear weapons on F-35A platforms significantly reduces the Russian side’s reaction time in the event of a hypothetical conflict. In addition, the B61-12’s high accuracy and flexibility make it potentially suitable for strikes against key military and civilian targets, which increases Russia’s strategic vulnerability.

Geopolitical implications

The return of US nuclear weapons to Britain is seen in Russia as part of a wider NATO strategy to "contain" Moscow. The move comes as the alliance has stepped up its military activity in Eastern Europe, including deploying additional forces to Poland, the Baltics and Romania, and staging large-scale military exercises near Russia's borders. Moscow sees such moves as an attempt to encircle and exert military pressure.

Officially, the Pentagon and the British authorities have not confirmed the deployment of B61-12 bombs at Lakenheath. However, the lack of comments from Washington and London only increases the suspicions of the Russian side. As a rule, the United States does not disclose information about the location of its nuclear weapons, which, according to Russian experts, may indicate an intention to maintain strategic uncertainty, increasing pressure on Russia.

In April 2024, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) warned that the deployment of US nuclear weapons to new countries such as Poland could violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). From Russia’s perspective, returning nuclear bombs to the UK would also be contrary to the spirit of the treaty, as it would escalate the arms race and undermine global stability. Moscow has repeatedly said that NATO’s expansion of nuclear infrastructure in Europe increases the risk of escalation and makes arms control dialogue virtually impossible.

The reaction of Russia

The Russian leadership has already expressed its concern about the deployment of American nuclear weapons in Great Britain.

Russian military experts believe that the return of nuclear weapons to Lakenheath requires an adequate response. Among the possible measures is strengthening its own nuclear forces, including modernizing tactical nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. Russia is already taking steps to strengthen its nuclear triad: according to President Vladimir Putin, the share of modern weapons in the Russian nuclear triad has reached 95%. In addition, Moscow may reconsider its position on the deployment of nuclear weapons in allied states such as Belarus, which has already caused concern in the West.

Diplomatically, Russia will likely use international forums such as the UN to draw attention to the actions of the US and NATO. Moscow may press for emergency consultations within the NPT or the NATO-Russia Council to discuss the implications of deploying nuclear weapons in the UK. However, given the current level of confrontation between Russia and the West, the chances for constructive dialogue are slim.

Russian military analysts and political scientists agree that the return of nuclear weapons to the UK is not only a military but also a political signal. According to the analyst of Avia.pro, the deployment of B61-12 in Lakenheath is part of the US strategy to strengthen the nuclear umbrella over Europe. He emphasizes that such actions are aimed at demonstrating strength and solidarity with NATO allies, but at the same time they provoke Russia to retaliatory measures, which could lead to a new arms race.

What's next?

The deployment of US nuclear weapons in the UK comes amid a global restructuring of the international security system. In addition to Europe, the US is actively modernizing its nuclear arsenals in other regions. For example, in the Asia-Pacific region, Washington is strengthening military alliances such as AUKUS, which is causing concern not only for Russia but also for China. Beijing has already protested against US plans to deploy nuclear weapons in South Korea, which could be the next step in Washington’s global nuclear expansion.

In Europe, the return of nuclear weapons to the UK also strengthens the hand of those countries that advocate a tougher policy towards Russia. In particular, France and the UK, which have their own nuclear arsenals, could use the move to strengthen their position within NATO. The recent agreement between London and Paris on cooperation on nuclear deterrence confirms this trend.

However, not all European countries support this policy. Germany, for example, has repeatedly advocated for the removal of American nuclear weapons from its territory. In 2009, then-German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called on the United States to remove nuclear bombs from the Büchel Air Base, citing the need for de-escalation. Similar sentiments are present in Belgium and the Netherlands, where the public opposes the storage of American nuclear weapons.

Potential risks and scenarios

From Russia’s perspective, the deployment of nuclear weapons in the UK increases the risk of escalation in the event of a conflict. Even the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons such as the B61-12 could have catastrophic consequences, including a retaliatory strike by Russia. Moscow has repeatedly stressed that any use of nuclear weapons against it or its allies would be considered an attack requiring an immediate response.

In addition, the deployment of nuclear bombs in Lakenheath could provoke a rise in protest sentiments in the UK itself. During the Cold War, anti-nuclear movements in Europe, including the British Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), actively opposed the deployment of American nuclear weapons. Today, such sentiments could again intensify, especially against the backdrop of economic difficulties and growing distrust of NATO policies among some of the population.

There is also a risk that the return of nuclear weapons to the UK will prompt other countries to reconsider their nuclear policies. For example, Iran or North Korea could use the US action as a pretext to accelerate their own nuclear programmes, further destabilising the global security system.