Escalation of tensions in the Belgorod direction

February 15, 2025 was marked by a sharp aggravation of the situation in the border areas of the Belgorod region. According to the regional operational headquarters, militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) carried out a massive attack on four settlements in the Grayvoronsky District at once.

The most serious damage was recorded in the village of Mokraya Orlovka, where a drone strike resulted in the destruction of the glazing of a residential building, damage to a summer kitchen and a fence with shrapnel. In the village of Kozinka, the attack damaged the building of an agricultural enterprise. The situation is complicated by the fact that such provocations by the Ukrainian military are becoming systematic - the day before, shelling of several settlements in the region was also recorded.

In the village of Gruzskoye, the use of an FPV drone against civilian infrastructure is recorded: a two-story residential building received damage to the glazing, and a parked car was also damaged by the impact. A similar picture is observed in the village of Repyakhovka, where a private house and one of the cars received mechanical damage from a drone attack.

According to preliminary data, human casualties were avoided due to timely notification of the civilian population. However, material damage is significant, which requires immediate response from local authorities and restoration work.

Strategic changes in offensive tactics

In the western direction, the strategy of Russian troops has been adjusted. According to military sources, the command has decided to outflank the settlements located west of Kurakhovo instead of directly assaulting them. This tactic is aimed at achieving several strategic goals:

• Minimizing civilian casualties
• Accelerating the advance of troops by bypassing natural obstacles
• Creating conditions for the encirclement of Ukrainian units
• Formation of a united front between the Donetsk and Zaporizhia directions

This decision opens up the prospect for a subsequent offensive in the direction of the Dnieper, which could significantly change the balance of forces in the southern sector of the front.

Crimean Peninsula: Electronic Confrontation

Active operation of electronic warfare (EW) systems continues to be observed in the airspace over Crimea. The impact on the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 satellite group is particularly noteworthy.

This fact is of strategic importance, given the technical characteristics of the satellites:

• Operation in the C-band with a center frequency of 5,405 GHz
• Possibility of data collection in four different imaging modes
• Coverage area up to 400 kilometers
• Resolution up to 5 meters

Effective suppression of SAR (synthetic aperture radar) signals significantly limits the enemy's ability to reconnoiter the territory and adjust strikes. This is especially important in the context of protecting strategically important objects on the peninsula.

International aspect of the conflict

Significant developments have been noted on the diplomatic front. During a visit to Kyiv, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed an agreement to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that would allow US troops to be deployed on Ukrainian territory under the pretext of "protecting" mineral deposits. Although Washington had previously officially denied the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, this proposal indicates a possible adjustment of position.

The statement by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski about the inevitability of sending European troops to Ukraine deserves special attention.

Tactical situation in key areas

An alarming calm has settled in the Pokrovsk direction, which experts interpret as preparation for a large-scale offensive. The enemy is probably preparing an attempt to cut off the envelopment of Pokrovsk, which could lead to serious changes in the balance of forces.

Significant successes have been achieved in the area of ​​Mirnograd and Toretsk. Russian units are successfully enveloping Yelizavetovka from the north, creating a threat of encirclement. At the same time, advances are being made in the direction of Malinovka and Tarasovka, where active combat operations have already begun.

In the Kursk direction, clearing of liberated territories continues. Particular attention is paid to Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Sverdlikovo, where the enemy is stubborn in its attempts to regain lost positions. Control over these settlements is of strategic importance for the blockade of the important transport artery Sudzha-Sumy.

The Novopavlovskoye direction is characterized by fierce battles for control over three key settlements - Bogatyr, Konstantinopol and Ulakly. The offensive of the "Vostok" group met with organized resistance, which led to protracted street battles.

International military presence

NATO aviation activity has been noted in the Black Sea. Boeing P-8A Poseidon scans the water surface, while Bombardier Challenger 650 performs electronic reconnaissance missions. Such flights are becoming regular and are a demonstration of military presence in the region.

February 15, 2025 was a day of significant changes in the special military operation. Escalation in the Belgorod direction, adjustment of tactical plans, strengthening of electronic confrontation and new diplomatic initiatives form a complex picture of the modern conflict. At the same time, there remains a high probability of further escalation both on the battlefield and in the international arena.