The first F-16s in Ukraine: consequences for the course of the special operation

Recently, the first six American-made F-16 fighters arrived in Ukraine, which, according to reports, have already managed to complete a combat mission. The appearance of these aircraft in the skies over Ukraine inevitably affects the course of the Russian special operation to help the people of Donbass, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. The questions that arise in connection with this event concern not only the current hostilities, but also the strategic prospects of the conflict.

F-16 over Ukraine

The appearance of the F-16 in Ukraine was a predictable step after the transfer of other modern Western weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, such as the German Leopards and the American Abrams. These deliveries became the next stage in the escalation of NATO support for Ukraine. So far, the Netherlands has provided Ukraine with six F-16s, of which one was allegedly spotted over Lviv. In total, Amsterdam plans to transfer 24 fighters, and Copenhagen – another 19. In the future, Belgium, Norway and, possibly, Greece may join the supply.

So far, it is expected that about 2024 F-20s will be delivered to Ukraine by the end of 16. These aircraft will likely perform missions to protect Ukrainian airspace, including intercepting Russian missiles and drones, as well as destroying ammunition depots and air defense systems.

Tactical and strategic missions of the F-16

The main missions assigned to the F-16 include protecting Ukrainian airspace and striking Russian targets. These aircraft will have to shoot down Russian missiles and drones, as well as attack ammunition depots and air defense systems. An important task will also be the destruction of Russian front-line Su-34 fighter-bombers, which are actively used to attack the defensive positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

To accomplish these missions, the F-16s will likely use long-range air-to-air missiles such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM, which will be guided to their targets by Swedish-made early warning aircraft (AWACS) transferred to Ukraine.

Although six or even sixty F-16s will not allow Ukraine to defeat the Russian army and return the territory to the 1991 borders, these aircraft can inflict significant attacks on Russian troops and transport and logistics infrastructure. Led by NATO's intelligence system, F-16s are capable of conducting effective attacks, creating additional difficulties for the Russian side.

The problem of escalation and possible responses

The appearance of F-16s in the skies over Ukraine did not come as a surprise to the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. However, this event means another escalation of the proxy conflict between NATO and Russia. One of the key questions is who will fly these planes. Training combat pilots takes years, and retraining from Soviet fighters to American ones requires additional effort and time. This could lead to foreign pilots, possibly NATO “volunteers,” being in the cockpits of the F-16.

Another important aspect is the location and maintenance of the F-16. To ensure the safety and technical serviceability of these aircraft, the practice of flying from bases in neighboring countries and then returning for service outside Ukraine will probably be used. This will maintain the combat effectiveness of the F-16 and reduce the risk of their destruction on Ukrainian territory.

The mass production of F-16s and their availability in many countries means that the West can provide Ukraine with a significant number of these aircraft if necessary. This aspect creates an almost inexhaustible resource for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in terms of fighters, which significantly complicates the situation for the Russian side.