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Forecast of future relations with Ukraine

Forecast of future relations with Ukraine

 

 

 The tangled and difficultly predicted political situation in Ukraine has not yet had time to directly affect aircraft construction in Russia, tied to contracts with Ukrainian designers. But if the political crisis drags on, there is no guarantee that there will be difficulties in dealing with the same ASTC. Antonova и JSC "Motor Sich"Two strategic partners of the KLA in Ukraine no one will.

 Therefore, now, according to UAC Vice-President for Economics and Finance, Vladimir Chirikov, an option is being considered with the possible localization of the production of components for a number of aircraft (An-148, IL-76) in Russia. For 2014, all components have been purchased and contracts will be fulfilled, but then ... Is it possible to do without Ukrainian production facilities in the event of a final deterioration in relations between the countries, when even absolutely indifferent politically Ukrainian aviators will not be able to turn a blind eye to the confrontation of neighboring powers?

Chirikov believes that it is possible, if we talk about two projects - single-aisle aircraft An-148For which wings produce in Ukraine, as well as military transport aircraft Il-76 (also called IL-476). But it is no secret that contracts with Ukrainian aircraft manufacturers tied almost all domestic aviaproekty.

According to the KLA cooperation with Ukrainians benefit only from the point of view that the separation of capacities gives a gain in time, but if it is compromised, UAC is the necessary documentation and manpower for manufacturing of all components in Russia. They say that the biggest threat - the loss of time to kind of reformatting process.

Now, so far, few people seriously think about possible problems not only with Ukrainian suppliers, but also in the event of tough economic sanctions - with practically all aviation projects that are somehow tied to contracts with foreign designers. If we localize the production of components for the An-148 and Il-76 in Russia - this is an even more or less real task, which will still be very difficult and will temporarily suspend the already unpleasant production capacity of the UAC aviation conveyor, then in the case of sanctions, even it is difficult to imagine what could happen to the domestic aviation industry.

One example of the fact that the Russian aviation industry may lose in the event of further escalation of the conflict between the fraternal countries can be called a contract between Kiev State Enterprise "Antonov" and Russian "Ilyushin Finance Co.". 

Recently, the corporation passed the fourth passenger jet An-158 Cuban customers. This aircraft model is made taking into account the specifics of flights in Latin America, where most of the airfields are located at an altitude of 4 thousand kilometers. According to IFC's estimates, the demand for this type of aircraft and its "relatives" An-148/168 will only grow and by 2025 it is estimated at 400 aircraft that can only be supplied to American customers.

Two more An-158 aircraft will be delivered to Cuban airline Cubana de Aviacion by the end of the year. Obviously, in the event of serious problems between Ukraine and Russia, this “tasty” contract for both parties can be lost, and there are a lot of such examples at the junction of the aircraft building industry of Ukraine and Russia. I would like to believe that the forces that are heating up the political situation in the south-east of Ukraine understand what disastrous consequences can come not only from the aircraft of both countries. 

 

Sergei Babarik specifically for avia.pro

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