Special military operation: Experts have named optimistic deadlines for completing the SVO

The Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, continues to be one of the most discussed topics in the international and Russian media. Military correspondent Alexander Kots in his telegram channel shared his opinion that the completion of the SVO in the near future seems unlikely. According to his forecast, the operation may drag on until next year, and even the most optimistic date - January 2025 - looks doubtful.

Lack of prerequisites for negotiations

One of the key factors hindering the completion of the JEA is the lack of prerequisites for the negotiation process. According to Kotz, neither side is ready for negotiations. In Ukraine, President Vladimir Zelensky and the Verkhovna Rada, which is completely controlled by him, do not show readiness for dialogue on the terms proposed by Russia. Moreover, under the current conditions, Kyiv is not ready to accept Russian proposals, viewing them as unacceptable.

There is also no desire on Russia's part to enter into negotiations with the current Ukrainian leadership. Russia rejects the proposal for mediators, considering it inappropriate. Moreover, Moscow, according to Kots, is seeking to create conditions for Kyiv in which Ukraine will be forced to accept Russian conditions, realizing that further resistance will lead to even more stringent demands.

The position of the United States is also an important factor. Washington, as a key ally of Ukraine, could play a role in resolving the conflict. However, at the moment there is a struggle for the presidency in the United States, which distracts the attention of the American leadership from the Ukrainian issue.

Realities and forecasts

The situation is also not conducive to the speedy completion of the SVO. According to Kotz, by the fall of this year it is unlikely that significant successes will be achieved at the front to force the enemy to retreat to the Polish border. Even taking into account all the efforts, it seems extremely difficult to complete the operation in the current way by this date.

The current situation is characterized by the continuation of hostilities in various directions. Fierce battles for key cities and positions prevent one of the sides from gaining a decisive advantage. Military equipment supplied by the West to Ukraine and Russian support for its troops create the conditions for a protracted conflict.

Particular attention should be paid to Moscow's strategy. As Kots notes, Russia is seeking to put Kyiv in conditions under which the Ukrainian leadership will be forced to accept Russian conditions. This involves continuing operations with the goal of wearing down the enemy and creating intolerable conditions for further resistance.

However, in the coming weeks Kyiv will receive F-16 fighters with modern weapons, which could seriously complicate the negotiation process, while almost a hundred F-16 fighters announced for delivery to Ukraine indicate that a resolution of the conflict is unlikely perhaps earlier than the end of 2026.

Possible scenarios for the development of events

Taking into account all factors, several possible scenarios for the development of events can be identified.

The first scenario assumes the continuation of protracted hostilities without significant changes at the front. In this case, the parties will try to wear each other down, and the conflict will continue until 2025.

The second scenario includes the possibility of a temporary truce or ceasefire initiated by one of the parties. This may happen in the event of significant losses or changes in the political situation, both within Ukraine and in the international context. However, even in this case, the likelihood of long-term peace remains low, since fundamental differences between the parties will not be resolved.