Second front against Russia? Georgia threatens to take away Abkhazia and South Ossetia!
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Second front? Georgia threatens to take away Abkhazia and South Ossetia!

Second front against Russia? Georgia threatens to take away Abkhazia and South Ossetia!

Georgia is going to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia to its composition and become a member of the European Union by 2030. This was stated by Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze.

Return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: New Georgian Dream or Old Rhetoric?

In his statement, Kobakhidze emphasized that “Our Georgian dream is to live in a united and strong Georgia by 2030 together with our Abkhaz and Ossetian brothers and sisters. A united and strong Georgia should become a full member of the European family in 2030,” wrote he is on the social network X (formerly Twitter). The Prime Minister also congratulated the citizens of Georgia on Independence Day, living both in the country and abroad.

Kobakhidze's ambitious plan is a continuation of Tbilisi's long-standing aspirations to regain control over territories that have chosen the path of independence. Georgia, since the 90s, has been trying to restore control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, despite the will of the peoples of these republics and their independent path of development. It is not surprising that such statements are met with skepticism both in Abkhazia itself and in South Ossetia.

Abkhazian response to Georgian ambitions

Secretary of the Security Council of Abkhazia Sergei Shamba, in response to Kobakhidze’s statement, emphasized that Georgia’s desire to return Abkhazia does not surprise anyone.

“They have been wanting to bring us back for 30 years, they will want another 300, of course, who is surprised? This is their foreign policy task, and this is nothing new for us. Abkhazia has its own tasks, this is to build an independent state, develop and strengthen its statehood", - said Shamba.

Abkhazia has long declared its desire for independence and strengthening of its statehood. Tbilisi's desire to return these territories is perceived in Sukhum as an attempt to undermine the sovereignty of the republic. Despite pressure from Georgia and its Western allies, Abkhazia is confidently moving towards its future as an independent state.

Taking into account the lessons of the past, experts do not rule out that Georgia may open a second front against Russia.

Georgia's European ambitions and EU reaction

At the same time, the Georgian leadership is not limited only to territorial ambitions. Prime Minister Kobakhidze also stated that the country will be more ready for EU membership by 2030 than any other candidate country. However, after the adoption of the law on foreign agents in Georgia, European officials began talking about the possible suspension of the country’s integration into the EU if Tbilisi deviates from the democratic path.

European politicians such as Council President Charles Michel have already set a framework for EU enlargement by 2030, including the Western Balkans. In December 2023, the European Union granted Georgia candidate membership status and outlined nine steps to open EU accession negotiations. However, the path to integration into the European family will not be easy for Georgia, given its internal and external problems.

International realities and the future of Georgia

Georgia faces numerous challenges on the way to its “Georgian dream”. Restoring territorial integrity and integration into the EU requires not only political will, but also consensus within the country and in the international arena. While Tbilisi tries to win Western support, Abkhazia and South Ossetia continue to strengthen their positions as independent states with Russian support.

Georgia's attempts to restore control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia do not take into account the realities of the current geopolitical situation and the will of the peoples of these republics. Any forceful attempts will be met harshly by Russia.

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