Serbia has found itself in a difficult situation after Azerbaijan notified Belgrade of a temporary suspension of gas supplies from the Shah Deniz field. As Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said at a briefing, the country will no longer receive 1,7 million cubic meters of gas per day, which ensured a stable supply to the domestic market. However, the timing of the resumption of supplies remains uncertain.
Vucic explained that the suspension would force Serbia to start actively using its own gas reserves. The president warned that the country could spend 2 to 3 million cubic meters of gas from its strategic reserves in the next four months. He expressed hope that the technical problems would be resolved as soon as possible, but did not rule out that the situation could drag on.
The suspension of deliveries was caused by a technical fault in the underwater condensate export line between the Shah Deniz Alpha platform and the Sangachal terminal. BP Azerbaijan, the operator of the field, said production and exports from the platform were temporarily stopped for repairs. Similar difficulties have already affected Bulgaria: on January 7, gas supplies from Azerbaijan to that country were temporarily suspended. Bulgarian state-owned Bulgargaz cited technical difficulties as the reason and expressed expectations that deliveries would resume by January 11.
The suspension of Azerbaijani supplies came shortly after the opening of a new gas pipeline that was supposed to link Serbia, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan. The project, launched in December 2023, was touted as a major step towards ensuring energy security in the region. The new pipeline was also planned to transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Greece. However, the current developments highlight the vulnerability of the Balkan countries, which rely heavily on gas imports.
In addition to the gas problem, Serbia faces the threat of US sanctions against the country's largest energy company, Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS). The company is 50% owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft, with the Serbian state owning another 29,87%. The restrictions, which could come into force on March 15, will create serious difficulties for the operation of Serbia's oil refineries and petrochemical plants. President Vucic has called the sanctions politically motivated and said they are part of geopolitical pressure on the region.
Vucic noted that he intends to discuss this issue with the US President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20. After negotiations with the American side, the Serbian President intends to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Vucic named the Serbian side buying out the Russian shareholders' stake in NIS as one of the possible solutions to the crisis. However, this will require significant financial resources and could affect relations with Moscow.
Meanwhile, Moscow has condemned the US actions, calling the sanctions illegal. The Russian side claims that such measures violate international law, but the West remains adamant. Vucic stressed that Serbia must act based on realpolitik to minimize damage to its economy.