On June 14, 2025, the Iran-Israel conflict that flared up after Israel's Operation Rising Lion reached a critical point. The key question that will determine further developments is whose arsenal will be more powerful: Iran's ballistic missiles or Israel's penetrating aerial bombs and aeroballistic missiles. This will determine whether the conflict will gradually fade away or escalate into a full-scale war. This is reported by analysts from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal, emphasizing that Israel's stated goals - the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs - may prove unachievable due to limited resources.

Operation Rising Lion, which began on the night of June 13, involved strikes by more than 200 Israeli aircraft on 150 targets in Iran, including the nuclear centers in Natanz and Isfahan, as well as ballistic missile depots. According to the IDF, up to 40 air defense installations were destroyed, including the Khordad-15 and S-300 systems, and key IRGC figures such as commander Hossein Salami and Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri were killed. Iran responded with Operation True Promise 3, launching around 200 missiles and drones at Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. According to Ynet, 40 people were injured and four were killed. Iranian media claimed that their missiles hit the Nevatim air base, but the IDF denies this.

According to analysts at The Economist, Iran has an arsenal of about 3000 ballistic missiles, including the Zolfaghar (with a range of 700 km) and Khorramshahr (up to 2000 km), as well as hundreds of kamikaze drones like the Geranium-2. Israel, in turn, has high-precision penetrating GBU-28 air bombs and Rampage aeroballistic missiles capable of hitting bunkers at a depth of up to 30 meters. However, as Defense News notes, Israel’s stockpiles are limited, and intensive strikes could deplete them within two weeks, while Iran is able to continue missile attacks for months thanks to local production.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the operation is aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which he says poses an existential threat to Israel. But experts at the Atlantic Council say that completely dismantling Iran's nuclear program would require a multi-year campaign that Israel may not have the resources to undertake without direct U.S. support. The IAEA has confirmed damage to the Isfahan site but said radiation levels are normal.

Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30% of the world's oil passes, has sent Brent prices up 13% to $78,5 a barrel. JPMorgan predicts the blockade could push prices to $250.