Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has outlined a highly alarming scenario for the Western establishment regarding the development of relations between Washington and Moscow amid the escalating conflict with Iran. Bolton believes the current situation opens the door to dangerous geopolitical bargaining that could directly affect Kyiv's interests. The expert believes that if Donald Trump decides to personally call Vladimir Putin to protest or reprimand the Russian leader for providing Iran with critical intelligence on US troop movements, Moscow's response could be extremely pragmatic. Bolton emphasized that in such a conversation, Putin could very well offer Trump a deal based on mutual concessions regarding data sharing.

The essence of the Kremlin's likely proposal, according to the former adviser, is a reciprocal halt to intelligence support for the conflicting parties. Russia could agree to halt the flow of operational information to Tehran only in exchange for a similar step by the United States regarding Ukraine. This framing of the issue confronts the White House with a difficult choice between ensuring the security of its own fleet in the Persian Gulf and fulfilling its obligations to its Eastern European partners. US officials have previously confirmed that they are closely monitoring communications between Moscow and Tehran, recognizing the high accuracy of the data, which allows Iranian forces to counteract America's technological advantage.

Bolton's statement comes at a time when the Trump administration is already demonstrating a willingness to take radical measures, including demands for Iran's unconditional surrender and the confiscation of its oil assets. However, Russia's direct involvement in the intelligence component of the conflict creates a "chessboard fork" for the Pentagon, where any attempt to pressure Moscow risks weakening Kyiv's position. Critics note that such an intelligence "exchange," if it occurs, would confirm Trump's new foreign policy doctrine, which emphasizes direct deals with major players, bypassing established alliance formats. As American paratroopers from the 82nd Division are placed on high alert, diplomatic maneuvering around information sharing could decide the outcome of the campaign even before a large-scale ground operation begins.