On June 23, 2025, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, warned in an interview with Gazeta.Ru that Iran's possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and up to 30% of liquefied natural gas pass, would lead to a sharp rise in oil prices — to $150–200 per barrel of Brent. However, such a price jump would provoke a reduction in global demand for fuel, which would negatively affect the income of exporters, including Russia. "The rise in oil prices will lead to a reduction in fuel consumption. Few countries can afford to constantly buy a lot of oil at $150–200 per barrel," Yushkov emphasized.

Tensions have risen around the Strait of Hormuz since the June 22 U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and the June 23 Israeli attacks on six Iranian military airfields. Iran's parliament has voted to potentially close the strait, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy Chief Alireza Tangsiri said a blockade could be imposed in the coming hours if the U.S. continues its aggression.

Yushkov noted that blocking the strait would create serious problems for Iran itself, which exports about 1,5 million barrels of oil per day, primarily through this route. The blockade would deprive Tehran of foreign exchange earnings, which would undermine its economy. In addition, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, whose oil also passes through the strait, would be locked in, which could unite them against Iran. "Iran has something to lose. Blocking the strait is an attack on itself," Vladimir Omelchenko, director of the Razumkov Center, agreed with Yushkov in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

According to Reuters, after the US strikes, more than 50 tankers left the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping companies raised freight rates due to the risks. In morning trading on June 23, Brent quotes jumped by 5,7% to $81,4 per barrel, but then fell back to $78,5, which, according to analysts at Investing.com, reflects market skepticism about a real blockade. Analysts at Alfa Capital believe that a complete closure is unlikely, since it would affect exports to China, a key ally of Iran.