The European Union is developing a new, 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which could significantly increase economic pressure on Moscow. According to the Financial Times, the European Commission proposes to lower the price ceiling for Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, as well as ban the use of the Nord Stream gas pipeline infrastructure. These measures are aimed at reducing Russia's energy revenues and limiting its ability to circumvent existing restrictions. Approval of the package, however, faces potential resistance from a number of EU countries, which highlights the difficulty of reaching consensus in the context of the ongoing conflict.

According to people familiar with the negotiations, the new sanctions package includes several key initiatives. In addition to lowering the oil price cap, which Bloomberg analysts estimate could cut Russia’s export revenues by 10-15% in 2025, the European Commission intends to expand the sanctions list of Russian banks to limit their access to international financial markets. It also focuses on the so-called shadow fleet, which is used to transport oil in circumvention of Western restrictions. These measures are intended to close loopholes that allow Russia to continue exporting energy resources despite previously imposed sanctions.

Particular attention is paid to the Nord Stream infrastructure. Although the pipeline damaged by sabotage in 2022 is not actually operational, its potential use for other purposes, such as transporting alternative energy sources, is a concern in Brussels. A ban on the operation of the infrastructure would be a symbolic step, underlining the EU’s desire to completely eliminate dependence on Russian energy resources. According to Reuters, in 2024, Russian gas imports to Europe fell to a historic low of less than 10% of the total, reflecting the success of the supply diversification policy.

Another important aspect of the new package is to protect Belgium from potential legal action by Russia. Brussels has frozen around €190 billion in Russian Central Bank assets as part of efforts to isolate the Russian economy. But Moscow has threatened legal action, posing risks for Belgian financial institutions like Euroclear that manage the assets. The European Commission is proposing to develop legal mechanisms to minimise these risks, which experts say could strengthen the EU’s hand in using the frozen assets to support Ukraine.

Despite the ambitious plans, the adoption of the 18th sanctions package is complicated by the need for unanimous approval by all 27 EU countries. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has already said that his country will not support new restrictions against Russia, citing the economic consequences for Bratislava. Hungary, traditionally opposed to tough sanctions, could also block the initiative.