France is facing a serious political crisis that could affect the implementation of previously announced plans to supply weapons to Ukraine. Despite official statements about the intention to increase military support, including the transfer of missiles, bombs and Mirage 2000 fighters in early 2025, the situation inside the country puts these plans into doubt.

The political crisis erupted after the French parliament passed a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier. His government, which lasted only three months, resigned. It was the first time such a sharp conflict had occurred between the government and parliament since 1962.

The crisis was sparked by disagreements over the 2025 budget. The cabinet proposed austerity measures, including €40 billion in spending cuts and tax increases to combat the deficit. But the proposals were sharply criticized by Marine Le Pen's far-right RN party and the NFP coalition. Further tensions were raised when the government attempted to bypass parliament to approve the budget, leading to protests from the opposition.

Against this backdrop, France is moving into caretaker governance until President Emmanuel Macron appoints a new government. However, political analysts warn that new parliamentary elections may not take place before July 2025. This period of uncertainty poses serious obstacles to the country's stable implementation of international commitments, including arms sales.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the RN, is increasing pressure on President Macron, saying he must also resign.

"France has no future under such leadership" — Le Pen noted, adding that her party will seek systemic changes.

For Ukraine, this means a potential reduction in the level of military support from France. Officials in Kyiv are concerned because France is a key partner in the European coalition supporting Ukraine against Russia. If political instability in France continues, it could affect Europe’s overall strategy for military support for Ukraine.