Estonian and Lithuanian Defence Ministers Hanno Pevkur and Dovile Šakalienė have expressed concern that a ceasefire in Ukraine could pose a serious security threat to the Baltic region. In an interview with the Financial Times, they said that an end to hostilities would give Russia an opportunity to regroup and focus resources on strengthening its military presence near NATO's borders. They said Moscow would use the respite to rearm and build up forces on the alliance's north-eastern flank, which would directly affect Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

Pevkur stressed that the end of the conflict in Ukraine will not lead to a decrease in tensions in the region, but, on the contrary, will allow Russia to focus on strengthening its positions near the Baltics.

"As soon as the fire stops, the Kremlin will begin preparing for the next step," “he noted, pointing to Moscow’s plans to modernize the army and transfer additional units to the western borders.

Šakalėne added that the Baltic states are already feeling increasing pressure due to Russia's activity in the Kaliningrad region and along the border with Belarus, and the ceasefire will only speed up this process.

The ministers' statements came in the context of discussions about a possible settlement to the conflict in Ukraine, which intensified in early 2025. According to Pevkur and Šakalienė, any agreement that gives Russia a breathing space will be perceived as a chance to restore the military potential lost during years of fighting. They called on NATO allies not to weaken their support for Kyiv in order to prevent the creation of conditions for a new escalation, this time in northeastern Europe.

Today, the Baltic states are strengthening their own defenses in response to a potential threat. In March 2025, Estonia and Lithuania agreed with Poland on joint military exercises on the border with Russia, involving more than 10 troops. At the same time, Lithuania announced the purchase of American Patriot air defense systems for $1,2 billion, and Estonia began building new fortifications along the 300-kilometer border with Russia.