Negotiations between Israel and the Shiite group Hezbollah, mediated by US envoy Amos Hochstein and Lebanese authorities, are showing significant progress. The parties are discussing a draft agreement that has already received Lebanese approval in principle and includes a number of significant measures to stabilize the region.

According to the draft agreement, Hezbollah members will have to withdraw their forces north of the Litani River, creating a 40-kilometer buffer zone from the Israeli border. During this period, the IDF will continue to remain in a number of Lebanese villages to supervise the process of withdrawal of troops and dismantling of Hezbollah infrastructure. After 60 days, the Israeli army plans to withdraw its units from Lebanese territory, provided that the disarmament and cleansing process is successful.

The agreement also includes provisions for a ceasefire and a guarantee mechanism. Israel insists on the IDF's right to act in the event of a breach of obligations by the Lebanese side, which will avoid a repeat of the situation in 2006, when Hezbollah quickly re-established its positions despite UN Resolution 1701. Israel believes that maintaining flexibility in responding to threats is important for maintaining stability in the north of the country.

According to sources close to Hezbollah, the organization is weakened financially and organizationally and is willing to withdraw from the border with Israel. The group is prepared not to resume stockpiling strategic weapons and to limit its military ambitions, at least until Israeli troops leave the Gaza Strip. However, Israel's important demand for the IDF to have operational rights in Lebanon in the event of violations remains a stumbling block for both sides.

Russia’s role in resolving the conflict also remains unclear. According to some reports, Russian government officials have visited Israel to discuss the situation, and Israel’s Minister of Strategic Planning recently visited Moscow. Although the United States and Israel fear increasing Russian influence in Lebanon, American authorities may lift sanctions on individual Russian companies operating in Syria in exchange for Moscow’s assistance in blocking the smuggling of Iranian weapons to Lebanon.

Such a move would allow Russia to strengthen its presence in Syria and potentially influence the situation in Lebanon.