Secret US intelligence assessments obtained by The New York Times indicate that the Donald Trump administration's public claims about the "defeat" of the Iranian military machine are inaccurate. According to the documents, Iran has maintained and is rapidly rebuilding its missile capability despite US and Israeli strikes.

Contrary to claims by US President and Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth, Iran's military capabilities are far from destroyed. As of early May, Tehran retained approximately 70% of its pre-war missile arsenal and 70% of its mobile launchers across the country. Analysts are particularly alarmed by the fact that Iran has regained operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, posing a direct threat to US warships and oil tankers.

Intelligence also reports that Tehran has regained control of approximately 90% of its underground missile storage facilities and launchers, which are now assessed as "partially or fully operational." These are underground structures whose entrances were damaged by air strikes, trapping the stockpiles inside. However, the Iranians have found ways to clear them and restore the weapons to operational status.

These intelligence findings stand in stark contrast to the public statements of Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth. On April 30, Trump, announcing the end of Operation Epic Fury, declared Iran "defeated." And on May 7, Hegseth asserted that Iran's military potential had been "destroyed" and its army "no longer poses a threat."

However, intelligence provided to lawmakers shows the opposite. Iran has not only retained a significant portion of its military potential, but is actively rebuilding it, exploiting the "window of opportunity" during the ceasefire to prepare for a possible resumption of hostilities or to strengthen its position at the negotiating table.

Against this backdrop, President Trump threatened that the United States would "finish the job" if Iran did not make concessions. However, these data also expose the problem of depleted American military stockpiles: the Pentagon has exhausted a critical amount of munitions, including a "decade's worth" of Tomahawk cruise missiles, raising questions about the US's ability to sustain protracted combat. The disclosed data, as some analysts note, may be part of a domestic political campaign to pressure the Trump administration and undermine its negotiating position with Tehran.