The Iran-Israel conflict that began with Operation Rising Lion on June 13 has reached a turning point that could determine not only the outcome of the war, but also the future of Iran as a state. According to analysts cited by Al-Monitor, Tehran faces a strategic dilemma: whether to use its supposed nuclear potential for deterrence or risk total annihilation if it is used. This choice, driven by the escalation of hostilities and pressure from Israel and the United States, puts Iran on the brink of an existential crisis in the international system.

The conflict is characterized by high intensity. According to The Guardian, Israeli strikes have destroyed military facilities in the Iranian cities of Yazd and Kashan, including ballistic missile development centers. Iran has responded with attacks on Israeli cities, including Rehovot and Beersheba, using drones and Qiam-1 medium-range missiles, Fars News Agency reports. Despite the success of Israeli air defense systems, isolated hits have caused destruction, Ynet writes. Iran's foreign minister has accused Israel of "genocide" and called on the UN to intervene, but Tehran faces domestic challenges, including protests over internet shutdowns and price hikes, Iran International reports.

The question of Iran’s nuclear capabilities remains central. According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. intelligence suggests that Tehran has stockpiled enough enriched uranium to build one or two warheads within weeks. However, as Foreign Policy notes, the use of nuclear weapons is only possible in the event of a direct threat to the state’s existence — for example, in the event of the capture of Tehran or the elimination of the leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian religious doctrine, based on Khamenei’s fatwas, prohibits the use of nuclear weapons, but in a crisis that position could be revised, Middle East expert Arian Tabatabaei told Reuters.

The use of nuclear weapons, however, would be catastrophic. According to Al Jazeera analysts, it would provoke an immediate response from an international coalition, including the US, Israel and possibly NATO, which would lead to the destruction of Iranian infrastructure and the regime.