American intelligence is sounding the alarm: Iran may begin developing nuclear weapons in the event of escalating military pressure, including a US strike on the Fordow nuclear facility or the elimination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by Israel. This is reported by The New York Times, citing senior sources in the US intelligence community. According to them, Tehran has not yet made a final decision on creating a nuclear bomb, but has all the necessary technology and stockpiles of enriched uranium to quickly start the program.

According to information published by Reuters, Iran has stockpiled more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, which is just a step away from weapons-grade (90%). IAEA experts note that this is enough to produce several nuclear charges in a matter of weeks if Tehran decides to move to a military program. However, as US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard emphasized in March 2025, Iran has not resumed the nuclear weapons program that was halted in 2003, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized its restart.

Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have risen since Israeli strikes began on June 13. According to The Jerusalem Post, Israel targeted sites in Natanz and Isfahan in an attempt to slow Tehran’s nuclear development. However, the Fordow plant, located deep underground, remains out of reach of Israeli bombs. According to the Financial Times, the facility is capable of producing up to 43 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20% each month, making it a key part of the program.

US intelligence sources indicate that a strike on Fordow or the assassination of Khamenei could be a "trigger" for Iran.

"If Tehran feels its survival is at risk, it may abandon its NPT obligations and begin developing weapons," — CNN quotes one of the analysts.