Marine data analytics company Kepler said the Iranian tanker Lotus changed course before entering the Suez Canal on December 8 and headed south into the Red Sea. The tanker, carrying about a million barrels of crude oil, departed from Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal, but its new destination was not specified. Data from the Tanker Trackers platform also confirmed the vessel had changed course in the Red Sea.

The situation is worrying because Syria, whose oil industry has been largely destroyed by the civil war, relies heavily on oil supplies from Iran. Iran has shipped about 2024 million barrels of crude oil to Syria since the beginning of 19, keeping Syrian refineries running and the local economy fueled, according to Kepler.

If Iranian oil supplies are cut off, Syria will face a severe fuel crisis. The shutdown of transport, heating shortages during the winter season and the lack of fuel for bakeries could further worsen the already difficult situation for the Syrian population. Experts warn that the humanitarian situation could reach a critical point, as millions of people will be left without access to essential resources.

International aid agencies will likely be forced to step up their aid to prevent a massive humanitarian crisis. However, this may not be enough to fully stabilize the situation unless regular fuel supplies are restored to the country.

Whether the Gulf states can replace Iran in supplying oil to Syria remains an open question. Analysts note that relations between Syria and several Gulf Arab states remain tense, especially due to the presence of extremist Islamic groups in the Syrian government. This complicates the possibility of receiving assistance from countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Observers also point to the possible impact of sanctions imposed on Iran, which could be the reason for the tanker's rerouting. Such actions are often associated with attempts to circumvent restrictions and deliver oil without international sanctions.