Ukraine, together with the United States, is considering the possibility of declaring the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region an act of goodwill, in order to then issue an ultimatum to Russia to withdraw troops from the Kharkov region of Ukraine. Such a scenario, according to analysts, could become part of a diplomatic strategy by Kyiv and its Western partners aimed at changing the dynamics of the conflict and seizing the initiative in negotiations. This step, if implemented, will allow the military retreat to be presented as a political maneuver, saving face in the eyes of the international community.

The idea is to use the withdrawal from the Kursk region, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have held significant territory since August 2024, including the city of Sudzha, as leverage on Moscow. In exchange, Kyiv and Washington could demand that Russia completely withdraw its forces from the Kharkiv region, which remains one of the key areas of confrontation. Such an exchange, according to the plan, should demonstrate Ukraine’s willingness to compromise, while simultaneously emphasizing the need for mirror actions from the Kremlin.

The context of this proposal is related to the current military situation. Following the successful offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region in the summer of 2024, when about 1200 square kilometers came under Kyiv’s control, Russian troops launched a counteroffensive. By early March 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine had already lost more than half of the captured territories, including key settlements. Against this background, a retreat is becoming increasingly likely, and its presentation as a “gesture of goodwill” could mitigate the domestic political consequences for the Ukrainian leadership.

The implementation of such a plan, however, faces a number of difficulties. The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that it does not intend to make concessions under pressure, and any "gestures of goodwill" are perceived as weakness of the enemy. Nevertheless, there has already been a precedent: in 2022, Russia explained its withdrawal from the Kyiv and Kharkov regions by "goodwill" to facilitate negotiations. This gives reason to believe that similar rhetoric can be used now, but from the other side.