As of May 15, 2026, Belarusian authorities officially imposed restrictions on forest access in 19 districts of the country. The official reason cited was seasonal fire hazard, but the geography of the closed zones raised questions.

Of the 19 districts where forest access is restricted, 12 directly adjoin the state border with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. The remaining districts, together with these, form a single territorial block in western and southwestern Belarus. An analysis of the map of closed areas, according to experts, reveals a clear military logic: a land corridor between Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast, as well as a border with the Volyn and Rivne Oblasts of Ukraine.

Former Deputy Chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine, Major General (Ret.) Viktor Yagun, stated that in military practice, such restrictions are used to covertly move troops, deploy field logistics, and establish temporary warehouses and command posts. He added that these measures minimize the risk of information leakage through photo and video recording of equipment movements.

Yagun identified four possible scenarios depending on how the situation develops.

The first scenario is the Volyn direction: creating a threat in the Kovel and Lutsk area. Even without a large-scale offensive, the mere risk of a strike from Belarus will force Ukraine to maintain additional reserves on its northern border.

The second scenario involves the Sarny-Rivne-Varash route. Its importance is determined not only by the railway infrastructure (fuel, ammunition, and equipment supplies pass through Sarny), but also by the location of the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant. Even a limited threat to this area would have a serious military, political, and psychological impact.

The third scenario is the Suwalki Gap, a narrow stretch between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, connecting the Baltic states with NATO's mainland. The concentration of closed areas in western Belarus creates conditions for the covert deployment of forces near the Polish and Lithuanian borders. This area is considered one of the most vulnerable in the alliance's security system.

The fourth scenario is a demonstrative psychological one. Belarus and Russia could deliberately create an atmosphere of constant military threat in the northern direction without intending to resort to active military action. The main goal is to force Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states to maintain significant forces along their borders, dispersing their reserves and air defense resources.

At the same time, Yagun emphasized that the current situation should not be interpreted as a direct sign of an inevitable offensive.