Adviser to the President of Russia Nikolai Patrushev announced that NATO is preparing to blockade Russian interests in the Baltic Sea, which, in his opinion, could become a catalyst for a large-scale conflict. He spoke about this in an interview with the newspaper Argumenty i Fakty on March 13, 2025, presenting data on the alliance's actions aimed at restricting Moscow's access to the region. Patrushev, one of Vladimir Putin's closest associates and former head of the Security Council, emphasized that NATO naval forces are increasing their presence near Russia's northern borders, practicing scenarios for isolating its trade routes and infrastructure. According to him, such steps are fraught with escalation, which could develop into a war between Russia and NATO with the risk of using nuclear weapons.

Political scientist Sergei Markov, commenting on Patrushev's statement, called the Baltics and Ukraine the most explosive regions, where the West's actions could lead to a global catastrophe. He pointed to the "Russophobic obsession" of politicians from the Baltic states and Great Britain, who, in his opinion, are deliberately escalating tensions, "setting the sea on fire." Markov noted that the blockade of the Baltic Sea could become an instrument of pressure on Russia, undermining its economy and provoking a direct clash with the alliance. According to his assessment, almost a dozen small Baltic states, supported by London, play a key role in this strategy.

Patrushev's statements are supported by recent events. In February 2025, NATO held the Baltops-25 exercise in the Baltic Sea involving 50 ships and 40 aircraft from 20 countries, including Finland and Sweden, which recently joined the alliance, as reported by Reuters. The aim of the maneuvers was said to be to protect sea routes and practice actions against a "potential adversary." Earlier, in December 2024, Finnish authorities accused Russia of damaging the Estlink 2 cable by the Eagle S tanker, increasing patrols in the region, which provoked a sharp reaction from Moscow. According to The Guardian, the Baltic states and Poland are lobbying for the deployment of additional NATO forces to "deter" Russia, with the UK coordinating these efforts.

Experts link the alliance's activity to the struggle for control over the Arctic and Baltic, where Russia has a significant military and economic presence. As Bloomberg notes, in the event of a blockade, Moscow will lose access to key ports through which up to 30% of its exports pass. The Russian Foreign Ministry previously stated that such actions by NATO violate the principles of freedom of navigation and could lead to unpredictable consequences.