Donald Trump's policies could lead to a split in NATO even without the US officially leaving the alliance, Newsweek magazine warns in an article published on March 20, 2025. The publication emphasizes that the American president's second term, which began in January, is already causing alarm among the bloc's allies due to his repeated statements about reviewing Washington's commitments. Experts interviewed by the magazine believe that Trump is capable of undermining NATO unity using both formal and informal mechanisms, which puts the future of the West's largest military alliance at risk.

According to David Blagden, associate professor of international security and strategy at the University of Exeter, Trump would not need to pull the US out of the alliance to weaken it. A mere hint from the White House of a refusal to implement Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which guarantees collective defence, would be enough to destroy the bloc’s credibility.

"If the US presidential administration makes it clear that it has no intention of defending allies in the event of an attack, NATO's credibility will be effectively dead," "Blagden noted in an interview with Newsweek.

This informal approach, he says, is simpler and faster than the complex process of a formal break that requires congressional approval. The publication also points to possible steps by Trump, including cutting funding for joint operations or withdrawing American troops from Europe, which could paralyze coordination within the alliance.

Trump, known for his criticism of NATO since his first term, has repeatedly called the organization “obsolete” and demanded that European countries increase defense spending. His return to power has fueled fears that he will follow through on threats made during the 2024 election campaign, when he said he would not defend allies who default on their financial commitments. Newsweek points out that such actions could lead to a “quiet split,” where the alliance would formally remain in place but would effectively cease to function as a single military bloc.