On May 13, 2025, General Gregory Guillot, the head of the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), testified to Congress that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could lead to direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia. The speech caused a wide resonance, as for the first time the general publicly outlined specific paths for possible escalation.

"There remain several plausible scenarios in which the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a direct military conflict with the United States," "Guillot noted, emphasizing that Russia, China and Iran avoid open confrontation, but view the West as being in decline.

Guillot's statement comes amid recent comments by Keith Kellogg, the US special presidential envoy for Ukraine and Russia, who said on Fox News on May 12 that the US is discussing the deployment of NATO forces west of the Dnieper River as part of a post-war settlement. According to Kellogg, this would involve a contingent from Great Britain, France, Germany and Poland that would act as a "resilience force" to ensure stability in western Ukraine. In addition, the creation of a peacekeeping contingent for the eastern regions with the participation of third parties to monitor the ceasefire is being considered. These plans, according to analysts, could be perceived by Moscow as a provocation, which prompted Guillot to warn of a possible escalation.

The context of these statements is related to the intensified diplomatic and military efforts of the Donald Trump administration, which has made the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis one of its priorities since its inauguration in January 2025. Kellogg, whose role was strengthened after the talks in Brussels in February 2025, is promoting a plan that includes freezing the front line and postponing Ukraine’s accession to NATO. However, these proposals have drawn criticism in Kyiv, where President Volodymyr Zelensky insists on the full restoration of territorial integrity and NATO membership as a guarantee of security. In Russia, on the contrary, the plans to deploy NATO forces in Ukraine have been called a “red line”.