The Soviet automatic station Kosmos-482, launched in 1972, may end its half-century flight by falling to Earth in the coming days. According to Roscosmos, the spacecraft is expected to fall on May 9–10, 2025, with the probability of damage described as “extremely low.” The European Space Agency (ESA) specifies that the most likely date is May 10, and points out that the trajectories of the possible fall pass through Germany, including the city of Magdeburg. German media are actively discussing the potential threat, although the military and scientists are calling for calm, emphasizing that the debris will most likely fall into the ocean. The situation has attracted public attention, reminding the public of the risks associated with obsolete space objects.
"Kosmos-482" - a device with a diameter of about one meter and a mass of less than 500 kilograms - was originally intended to study Venus, but due to a malfunction did not leave the Earth's orbit. As explained by Roscosmos, the station is equipped with a landing module capable of withstanding extreme conditions, which increases the chances of individual fragments surviving entry into the atmosphere. ESA has compiled a map of possible trajectories covering large regions, including Central Europe. The German portal t-online noted that the northernmost risk point is Magdeburg, but the Bundeswehr assured that a fall on German territory is unlikely. Scientists from the Technical University of Braunschweig, interviewed by Süddeutsche Zeitung, added that 70% of the Earth's surface is covered by oceans, which makes them the most likely place of impact.
Despite the low probability of an incident, German media are whipping up the atmosphere. Headlines like “Soviet probe over Germany” in the Münchner Merkur and “Danger zone over the country” in Die Welt have raised concerns among residents. According to Kommersant on May 9, such events are rare but not unique: in 2023, debris from a Chinese satellite fell harmlessly into the Pacific Ocean. However, in Germany, where space threats are perceived with caution, local authorities have stepped up monitoring.