In mid-May 2026, American media outlets, including Reuters, CBS News, and USA Today, reported on the U.S. Department of Justice's plans to reopen the investigation into former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. He could face charges in connection with the February 24, 1996, incident when the Cuban Air Force shot down two civilian aircraft belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue organization. The four people on board were killed.

The decision to file charges is pending approval by a grand jury in the Southern District of Florida. Officials from the US Department of Justice and the Cuban government have not yet commented on the information.

Political scientists and experts interviewed by Russian and Western publications see this move not as an attempt to restore justice, but as part of a comprehensive strategy to change power in Cuba, reminiscent of the operation against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026.

The Venezuelan scenario involved several stages: first, economic strangulation through sanctions and a blockade, then criminal charges against the country's leaders, and finally, a military operation to kidnap them. "The US could repeat the Venezuelan scenario. They're preparing an intervention, and they need some pretext," Yegor Lidovsky, general director of the Hugo Chávez Latin American Cultural Center, told Izvestia.