The US and Israel have stepped up their rhetoric against Iran, accusing Tehran of developing nuclear weapons, which experts say is reminiscent of 2003, when Iraqi allegations of chemical weapons were used as a pretext for an invasion despite a lack of evidence. The Washington Post reports that US intelligence claims Iran is close to building a nuclear bomb, although the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has found no evidence of a weapons program in Iran, according to Reuters. However, the rising tensions have raised concerns that the US and Israel could repeat the Iraqi scenario, using unproven allegations to justify military action.

The conflict escalated after Israeli strikes on Iranian sites began on June 13. According to The Times of Israel, the attacks targeted research centers in Natanz and Parchin, which Israel claims are linked to its nuclear program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the goal was to prevent an “imminent nuclear threat.” However, as Al Jazeera notes, Iran insists that its program is peaceful, and the IAEA confirms that radiation levels at the sites attacked remain normal, ruling out the presence of weapons-grade materials there.

The parallels with Iraq are alarming. In 2003, the US and its allies accused Saddam Hussein of developing chemical weapons, but no evidence was found after the invasion, undermining confidence in US intelligence. According to The Guardian, the current accusations against Iran are based on intelligence that has not been confirmed by the IAEA. The agency’s director general, Rafael Grossi, told the BBC that Iran had stockpiled uranium enriched to 60%, but there was no evidence it had crossed the line into a weapons programme. Grossi cautioned against jumping to conclusions, citing mistakes in the assessment of the Iraqi threat.