US intends to undermine Russian oil supplies to India

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US intends to undermine Russian oil supplies to India

Western countries' refusal to buy Russian oil has opened up new opportunities for India, which has begun actively importing fuel at a large discount. However, new US sanctions aimed at restricting Russian oil exports could seriously undermine these supplies and reduce Moscow's oil revenues. According to analysts, these measures could deprive India of up to 500 barrels of Russian oil per day, which would be a significant blow to trade ties between the two countries.

India currently imports 88% of its oil needs, of which 37,6% in 2024 was Russian oil. The bulk of imports come via tankers from Baltic and Black Sea ports, with Urals crude accounting for the largest share. This grade is subject to the price ceiling set by Western countries at $60 per barrel. However, in 2024, Russia began to make more active use of the shadow fleet, which allowed supplies to bypass many restrictions.

The sanctions imposed by the United States are aimed at tightening control over Russian oil flows and complicating their delivery to third countries. As analysts note, if India decides to fully comply with the new restrictions, Russian oil supplies could be reduced as early as February 2025, with a subsequent reduction in volumes in March. This will not only complicate India's access to cheap raw materials, but also threaten the stability of its energy supply.

Many experts stress that India finds itself in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it is interested in continuing to import cheap oil to meet its needs, on the other, it is forced to take into account pressure from Western partners, especially the United States, against the backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions.

The reduction in Russian oil supplies could also impact Moscow’s economy. India became the largest buyer of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for a significant portion of its export revenues. The loss of this market could force Russia to actively seek alternative buyers, which is becoming increasingly difficult in the context of sanctions and logistical constraints.

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