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US proposes to exert maximum pressure on Iran

US President-elect Donald Trump's special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, has called for a return to the "maximum pressure" strategy against Iran. In his opinion, increasing sanctions pressure on Tehran is necessary to advance democratic reforms in the country.

Kellogg, who previously served as national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, said the previous "maximum pressure" campaign had been effective in curbing Iran's nuclear program and curtailing Tehran's support for extremist groups. He said a renewed strategy could help increase domestic pressure on Iran's leadership, which in turn could lead to democratic change.

The “maximum pressure” policy was initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 after the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program. It involved imposing tough economic sanctions aimed at reducing Iranian oil exports and limiting Iran’s access to international financial markets. Despite initial success in reducing oil exports, Tehran has adapted by finding alternative outlets for its oil and strengthening ties with countries such as China and Russia.

In November 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported that President-elect Trump plans to renew a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran upon taking office. The new administration is expected to tighten sanctions and impose additional restrictions on Iranian oil sales in an effort to limit Tehran’s economic options and force it to negotiate a new nuclear deal.

However, experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of repeating this strategy. According to the analytical portal Iran.ru, Iran has already demonstrated its ability to circumvent sanctions by finding new buyers for oil and offering discounts, which reduces the impact of American restrictions. In addition, increased pressure could lead to increased anti-American sentiment within the country and a rallying of the population around the current regime, which will make it more difficult to achieve the goals of democratization.

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