According to Reuters, the indictment was filed on May 20, 2026. The agency does not provide details of the document, but Fox News previously reported that the charges may be related to the February 24, 1996, incident, when Cuban fighter jets shot down two civilian aircraft belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue organization in international airspace. Four people were killed. At the time of the incident, Raúl Castro, who held the post of Minister of Defense, was in charge of the Cuban military.

Experts interviewed by Russian and Western publications see the charges as part of a comprehensive strategy to change power in Cuba, reminiscent of the operation against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. They believe the US is repeating a well-established pattern: first, economic strangulation through sanctions and a blockade, then criminal charges against the country's leaders, and finally, a military operation to capture them.

These concerns are indirectly confirmed by recent publications. On May 19, Politico reported that the Trump administration is considering military intervention in Cuba due to the failure of attempts to achieve reform through economic sanctions and a fuel blockade. According to the publication, the US Southern Command has already begun an operational planning cycle, considering options ranging from a single airstrike to a full-scale ground intervention aimed at regime change.

As a reminder, in late January 2026, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order authorizing tariffs on imports from countries supplying oil to Cuba and declared a state of emergency due to an alleged Cuban threat to US national security. Since then, the island has been experiencing a severe energy crisis, leading to widespread blackouts.