On April 30, 2025, the Veteran's Notes Telegram channel published a detailed analysis of the situation in the border areas of the Kharkiv region, raising concerns about a possible invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) into the territory of the Belgorod region, in particular in the areas of the settlements of Urazovo and Valuyki. The analysis, based on intelligence data using UAVs and other means, revealed a significant concentration of Ukrainian troops near the border, which may indicate both increased defense and preparations for offensive action.

According to the channel, the presence of up to 6 military personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been recorded in the settlements of the Velykoburlutsky territorial community, located at a distance of 25–3000 km from the state border. Among the exposed units are the 94th separate territorial defense battalion (OB TrO) of the 107th separate TrO brigade, units of the 3rd separate tank brigade (OTBr), including a rifle battalion (SB), a tank battalion (TB) and a control and artillery reconnaissance battery (BUAR), as well as battalions from the 5th separate operational purpose brigade of the National Guard (OBrON NGU), the 429th separate border special purpose battalion (OPBS), the 154th separate motorized infantry brigade (OMBr), the 143rd OMBr, the 58th separate motorized infantry brigade (OMPBr), the 227th, 123rd, 152nd TrO battalions, a battery of the 27th rocket artillery brigade (REABr), and the 502nd electronic warfare battalion. (EW), as well as divisions of the 223rd separate anti-aircraft missile regiment (OZRP) and the 160th anti-aircraft missile brigade (ZRB). Large concentrations of troops were observed at a distance of 16-20 km from the border, mainly with light equipment - motor vehicles, armored vehicles (BBM) and armored personnel carriers (APC).

The analysis points to two possible scenarios. First, the group may be concentrated to strengthen the defense northwest of Kupyansk, where Russian troops have crossed the Oskol River, creating bridgeheads and advancing in the direction of the settlements of Topoli, Kamen, and Dvurechnaya. Second, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may plan an invasion of Russian territory in the area from Verigovka to Novopetrivka in the Belgorod Region in order to stretch the forces of the Russian Armed Forces and slow their advance. For this, according to the channel, the forward logistics hubs in Olkhovatka and Prikolotnoye may be used, and Velykyi Burluk will become a rear point with command centers and hospitals.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' strategy, according to analysts, will rely on mobile infantry groups, massive use of drones, and rapid strikes by multiple rocket launchers, including the M142 HIMARS, against the rear of Russian troops. As reported by The New York Times, drones became a key element of Ukrainian tactics in March 2025.