France could face serious difficulties if it were to become involved in a large-scale armed conflict, according to a report by the Institute of International Relations (IFRI), which analyzed the combat capability of the French Air Force (AF) and its readiness for a high-intensity confrontation. 

According to the 100-plus page document, the French Air Force is built on the model of deterrence and protection of the airspace of the mainland. However, in the context of a large-scale conflict, this structure has its limitations. “The main problem is the insufficient number of combat aircraft, the lack of missiles and the limited ability to neutralize enemy air defense systems,” the report notes. 

Particular attention is paid to the technological superiority of potential adversaries. The improvement of the armed forces of Russia and China calls into question the ability of Western countries, including France, to achieve air dominance. The report emphasizes that the increased stealth and effectiveness of air defenses of these countries significantly complicate the performance of combat missions for French forces. 

The authors of the report consider three scenarios of a possible conflict: the destruction of enemy aircraft from the ground at a great distance, the defeat of ground-based aviation systems, and aerial combat. The greatest difficulties may arise in the implementation of the last scenario, when the French Aerospace Forces will be forced to enter into direct confrontation with the high-tech aviation systems of a potential enemy. 

Currently, the French Aerospace Forces and Navy have 240 fighters of various models, including Rafale and Mirage 2000. However, this number is not enough to participate in a large-scale conflict outside the country. Experts emphasize that only 40 aircraft are capable of effectively performing combat missions as part of coalition forces. 

An equally worrying problem is the shortage of ammunition. Air-to-air missiles are only stockpiled for three days of intense combat. This leaves the French Air Force vulnerable in a protracted conflict, especially when working with NATO coalition forces, where significantly more resources would be needed.